1. U.S. ISM Manufacturing
2. Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index

U.S. ISM Manufacturing (MoM)(SEP)(14:00 GMT, 10:00 EDT)
Consensus: 52.0
Previous: 53.6

Outlook:  In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which crippled manufacturing in the Gulf Coast and sent oil prices on a rollercoaster ride, ISM manufacturing likely further declined and prices paid likely skyrocketed. After climbing to 62.5 from July's 48.5, analysts see the measure of prices increasing to 73.0 in September. As far as the regional surveys go, both the New York and Philadelphia business surveys showed hefty declines with prices paid pretty much doubling in both surveys. On the other hand, today's Chicago Purchasing Manager index rose to 60.5, exceeding analyst expectations of 52, showing greater manufacturing strength in other parts of the country. On the national level, the regional conditions will probably amount to a decline as expected.

Previous: The index unexpectedly fell in August, registering at 53.6 compared to a 56.6 consensus. Prices paid jumped to 62.5 from 48.5 in July on higher oil and raw material prices. Gauges of new orders, employment and production all declined, suggesting US manufacturing is not as healthy as once thought. While the index has registered above 50 since June of 2003, the rate of expansion peaked in January of 2004 when the index checked in at 62.8; there has been a downward trend since then.

Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (QoQ)(Q3)(23:50 GMT, 19:50 EDT)
Consensus:  22
Previous:  17

Outlook: With confidence up among both consumers and manufacturers, the Tankan index likely rose in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. Isolated cases of growing business investment include Nissan Motor's announcement of a plan to spend 5.1 billion yen in expanding engineering facilities in Zama, while Tokyo Steel said this month it is planning to build a new factory. Meanwhile, consumer confidence has lifted as the employment situation improves. Housing prices in Tokyo rose for the first time since 1990 during the first half of the year, and the Nikkei index is at a four-year high. However, not everything is rosy since oil prices still pose a standing threat to Japan's economy as the country imports almost all of its oil.

Previous: The index positively surprised analysts in the second quarter with manufacturing confidence checking in at 18 versus a consensus estimate of 16. Capital investment was stronger than expected, as domestic demand firmed up. However exports were weak, holding back the Japanese economy in the second quarter. The export market remains difficult as competition from countries like China continue to tap Japan's market share of worldwide exports.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.