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Forex Economic Alerts for October 5
By John Kicklighter | Published  10/4/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for October 5
  1. Euro Zone Retail Trade
  2. ISM Non-Manufacturing

Euro Zone Retail Trade (MoM)(AUG)(9:00GMT, 5:00EDT)
Consensus:  0.4%
Previous: -0.5%

Outlook:  Compared to a decline of 0.5 percent and a flat reading in June, retail sales in the euro zone are set to rise once again mostly attributed to demand pickups in the French economy.  Although unemployment retains its above 8 percent reading, growth prospects have improved over the past month with subsequent figures boosting the notion for the overall region.  Factory orders and industrial sales in Germany, coupled with increases in the activity measure of the manufacturing sector have supported a print to the upside with additional upticks in German business sentiment.  For the month of September, according to the closely watched Ifo Institute's survey, rising corporate sentiment improved to an eight month high.  However, the results were recorded prior to the general elections with economists noting a slight shift following the stalemate outcome.  The only caveat that continues to exist is the crude oil card.  Still high on the year, smaller amounts of disposable income mean less spending freedom on the behalf of the consumer.

Previous:  Retail sales in the euro zone dipped by 0.5 percent in the month of July as consumers remain unwilling to spend on higher oil and energy costs.  According to the European Union's statistics office, sales in the 12 countries using the euro as the common currency fell further than economists had previously predicted, a decline of 0.3 percent.  Additionally attributed to the relatively high unemployment currently looming over the region, economists are expecting modest growth in the second half of the year, a bit pessimistic compared to previous estimates.  Moreover, European Central Bank officials have cut expansion estimates to an average of 1.3 percent from a 1.4 percent annualized measure.  Nonetheless, with economic figures rising recently, better growth prospects may prompt future consumer spending.  Notably, sales in Belgium soared 7.1 percent , the biggest gain in retail sales for the region.

ISM Non-Manufacturing (SEPT)(14:00GMT, 10:00EDT)
Consensus:  59.6
Previous:  65.0

Outlook:  Bound on the notion of a disruption in economic activity, consensus expectations remain lower for the non-manufacturing report in the month of September.  Although still hovering above the expansionary 50 figure, consensus estimates are now calling for a dip to 59.6, the lowest reading for the year, from the previous 65 reading seen in the previous month.  Mostly attributed to expectations of a disruption attributed to the two hurricanes, the prices component is still expected to skyrocket as oil prices remain lofty by 30 percent on the year on year comparison.  Subsequently, due to the inner calculations, disruptions in affected areas may be minimized in the figure, confirming the resiliency of the overall economy.

Previous:  Rising in the month of August, growth at U.S. service companies rose further above the 50 expansionary level, printing a 65 from July's 60.5 figure.  Suggestive, as has been subsequent economic indicators, the release further bolsters the notion that economic growth prospects remain intact even after both Hurricane's Katrina and Rita.  Additional demand in other industries underpinned strength in the figure even as auto sales dipped along with retailers in the month.  New orders rose above previous figures printing a 65.8 while prices paid remained contained at 67.1, dipping below the 70.3 reading in July.  Although not as highly anticipated as its manufacturing counterpart, the non-manufacturing report remains suggestive of service growth in the world's largest economy.  However, economists are now expecting a slight disruption in the upcoming month.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.