Weekly Market Outlook |
By Dave Mecklenburg |
Published
02/23/2009
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Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks
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Unrated
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Weekly Market Outlook
Last week was bad. Real bad. The weekend may have stopped the bleeding. Will the stock market find support this week? What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?
Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader
The phone calls and emails I have received lately are all of the same variety. “Adrian,” they ask, “when is this going to end. There has to be a bottom.” My response is always the same, and the sentiment has been expressed by me in this article so many times over the past 18 months that I have lost count. There is no end to it. There is no bottom. The market is not obligated to move higher and, until something good happens it will continue to deconstruct taking the bottom-pickers and talking heads with it. Those of you who watch CNBC all day know that the commentators and guests are not paid or encouraged to report what is happening in the markets, but rather to offer hope. Their job is to convince you of buying opportunities and the fact that everything is “priced in.” Eventually, the reasoning goes, the market will move higher. And having stated a thousand times that the bottom is firmly in place will eventually lead to fame and fortune when followers of the media remember that the person doing the predicting was ultimately correct. The truth of the matter is that, if you listened to most of the bottom-is-in crowd, you have gone broke buying pullbacks off lows and suffering the inevitable drawdown when the downtrend reasserted itself. And when the commentator pats him or herself on the back for having correctly identified the turning point in the debacle, there will be little comfort for those who lost and lost again buying into the endless hype.
No one knows what is coming next. Will we see an oversold bounce in the near future? Probably. Will that represent a capitulation move to members of the media? Probably. Will the bottom actually be in? Probably not, unless geopolitical, economic and earnings conditions improve, in which case genuine interest in owning rather than trading equities will push the entire market higher and it will be time to start trying to identify the buying opportunities in a new, easily identifiable trend. For the time being, I will continue to look to the big picture for my clues as to what is coming. That will mean that in the coming week I will watch for intraday trading opportunities in the Diamonds (DIA) and Spyders (SPY), which will almost certainly offer many pivot inflection entries as the trend continues to move stocks in the short timeframe in the direction of the larger one.
Art Collins, Index Futures Trader
The stock market should find support sometime this week, although when and at what level is anybody's guess. We're below the last of the key support levels. Friday was hairy and scary, although the market did show some upside promise, particularly since it closed above its open and well off the lows.
It's Sunday night as I write this and one of the main catalysts for a potential market rally is occurring. The dollar is falling. Perhaps this is a first sign that the near-term panic may stay contained.
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.
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