Weekly Market Outlook |
By Dave Mecklenburg |
Published
03/9/2009
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Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks
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Unrated
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Weekly Market Outlook
Wall Street isn't expecting any good news in the coming week. The best the market can hope for is a bounce off grossly oversold levels. What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?
Here’s the list of 7 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week: J Crew (JCG), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Kroger (KR), Staples (SPLS), Aeropostale (ARO), Genentech (DNA), ABM Industries (ABM)
Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader
Last week’s price action left the averages in a precarious situation. We have now exhausted most of the major support levels to the downside, and would need to see another roughly 1,000 points shed before arriving at an area that would presumably halt the carnage, even if only temporarily. This has brought everyone from CNBC to Barron’s and even the president himself out to proclaim that stocks are probably at or near a bottom and are trading at levels so deeply discounted that they represent nothing short of a good buy. That kind of talk worries me, as it spurs the kind of short covering rallies and minor accumulation that we had going into Friday’s close. These moves are primarily short lived, as traders soon realize that there is more short-side profit to be had, and unlucky bottom-pickers turn their attention to the reporters, and now president, who encouraged them to shore up the markets with their hard earned money and ask the inevitable “what the…?” Of course, as I have stated many times over the past year, some day the bottom will be in, and if they cheer on the buyers long enough, and if those buyers have any money left to buy stocks when it happens, then the reporters and president will be able to say "we told you so."
As for myself, I will continue to act on what the price action tells me to do. For the time being, the trend is definitely down, although the volatility has turned to the choppy variety, making it difficult to put meaningful moves in the bank. The market is definitely oversold and overdue for a substantial bounce. But it seems that all the traditional measures of sentiment and price persistency are out the window, with additional downside in the cards unless news of the "good" variety replaces some of what has been coming our way every time earnings or economic numbers are released. This week’s focus will be on the index proxies (DIA, SPY and QQQQ) and earnings plays in retailers J Crew (JCG), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Kroger (KR), Staples (SPLS) and Aeropostale (ARO). I will focus on reaction moves that drive price to pivot inflection levels and offer opportunity for entry on the pullbacks. Also on deck are a few long side possibilities in Genentech (DNA), which left a major daily and weekly Fast Ball expansion of range and volume and ABM Industries (ABM), which left a 3-2 Pitch setup with upside potential for the early part of the week.
Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader
The S&P 500 Index closed down 7% at 683.38, which it hadn’t seen since November 1996. That’s right, 1996. The Dow Jones faired only slightly better by posting a 6% loss. All the 31 sectors were in the red and 205 of the 209 industry groups had negative returns. I need to change the subject because I’m getting depressed. Turning on any financial television programs are banned in my household. The constant barrage of negative reporting from the so-called experts is getting too much to stand. This is exactly the opposite of the reporting that was done in the summer of 2008. At that time, you couldn’t find anyone that was negative. I guess that may be the best indicator that the market is about to make a turn to the upside.
I don’t know exactly when, but I think it’s within a week or two that a dramatic bounce is in store for the markets. There are no specific facts that I could put my finger on other than the markets are oversold. But I think it is right around the corner. I’m not sure what the catalyst will be, but I hope that the financial stocks will be involved.
As for this week, other than a handful of industry groups they are all oversold. I’ll be watching the Gold, Medical Practitioners and Generic Drug stocks for a bounce.
Art Collins, Index Futures Trader
Friday's late market action caught hapless shorts by surprise. There was an especial upside push after the cash Dow had closed, which could mean that weak shorts were forced out and we'll see resumed negativity in the early Monday session. On the other hand, we did establish the weekly (and multi-year) low on Friday, which was followed by higher closes across the complex. This could portend a near-term bottom. My studies show daily reversals in general don't have biases, but when you have a Friday with a lowest weekly low and higher close, there is a 59% accuracy for buying the next day and selling on the close. It should also be fairly intuitive that fading multi-weekly closes in the same direction tends to be historically profitable, the current relentless downside environment notwithstanding. In the 26-year history of the full-sized S&P futures contract, buying the next Monday morning after four down weeks in a row and exiting on Friday's close yielded 17 winning and 10 losing trades, or 60.71% profitability.
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.
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