My near and intermediate term work indicates strongly that the upside pivot low at 44.01 last Friday in the ProShares Ultrashort 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) completed the corrective period off of the February 9 recovery rally high at 49.86. If that proves to be the case, then all of the action this week, the climb to 48.20 on Wednesday, followed by the pullback yesterday and today, represent the start of a new upleg that should propel the TBT to new recovery highs. Let's notice that the 50-day MA is accented sharply higher now, and the 20-day MA is flat, creating a positive momentum condition within a very constructive pattern that has been developing off of the December low. After a bit more backing and filling, the TBT should begin a new upleg. Only a plunge that breaks 44.00 will wreck my current technical outlook.



Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical chart analysis and trading alerts on all major markets. For more of Mike Paulenoff, sign up for a free 15-Day trial to his MPTrader Diary by clicking here.