Weekly Market Outlook |
By Dave Mecklenburg |
Published
03/16/2009
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Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks
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Unrated
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Weekly Market Outlook
With a big bounce in the stock market, investors are wondering if the bottom of the market is now in. What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?
Here’s the list of 7 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week: Cash America International (CSH), Sysco Corp (SYY), EOG Resources (EOG), Exxon Mobile (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Williams Companies (WMB), Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP).
Adrian Manz, Stock Day Trader
This week’s bear rally was definitely the thing dreams are made of. We still have about 600 points to go before I will be convinced that the dream will not turn into a nightmare, but I have to say that the price action since Tuesday was ripe with opportunity, especially for those willing to ignore their gut feelings about what is happening in the world. I also have to congratulate my partner Art Collins, who stuck to his guns, ignored the pain, and managed to demonstrate very publicly that a properly designed and tested system can overcome and yield substantial profits just about when most of us would be ready to give up on it. My own work has resulted in moves that have acted to smooth Art’s, while our resident swing trader, Tom Incorvia, has managed to be the shining star of the group, putting the final icing on the strategy diversification cake. The net result serves to bolster my confidence in the notion that if you find a strategy that suits your psychology and style, you have overcome much of the struggle in trading. Watching what each of us does with the market action this week should provide an interesting insight into what traders in different timeframes may consider to be the logical next step in the current swing.
In my own account, I will focus trading early in the week on Infield Fly and Switch Hitter reversal candidates. Cash America International (CSH) is an example that satisfies many of the criteria of both setups and represents a pretty good Incorvia T-Bar setup as well. Multiple signals in multiple timeframes will definitely have the stock high on my watch list Monday and Tuesday. On the long side, Sysco Corp (SYY) is a Line Drive upside continuation candidate, and EOG Resources (EOG) is a Backdoor Slider with a long entry opportunity on trade above 59.55. If you are an Around The Horn fan, then you should recognize that the mix of signals this week reflects a cycle abnormality, with long and short patterns that do not usually overlap appearing together several days running. That may reflect a turning point, or it may simply anxiety on the part of investors. I suspect that this will be the case for the next 3-5 days, and that by the end of the week, the talking heads will have plenty to argue about as the market tries to find oversold footing in the midst of the uncertainty.
Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader
The markets finally had their first up week in several weeks and its first substantial positive week this calendar year. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes had bounces of over 10%. All the 31 sectors were up and 208 of the 209 industry groups had positive weeks. For those who are curious, it was the Wineries and Distilleries that kept them from batting 1.000. The question that had been asked to the point of nausea by the talking heads was, “Is the bottom in?” The answer is no one really knows. I do know that an oversold bounce was inevitable. A better question: Is this a bear market rally or just a short-term bounce?
Last week saw a noticeable bounce in the markets brought on by some bullish comments from banking CEO’s. But there are a lot of questions to be answered. If there is one thing that Wall Street hates with a passion is uncertainty. With that in mind, more sideways and downward price action is still the path of least resistance.
The economic numbers that will hold the most attention this week are the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). There are a few areas in the oil complex, namely the Major Integrated Oils and Oil & Gas Pipeline, that may show signs of a retest of the lows from last week. Specifically, stocks within those industry groups that I'll be watching are Exxon Mobile (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Williams Companies (WMB), and Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP).
Art Collins, Index Futures Trader
The stock indices displayed an impressive rally last week, albeit one that was overdue and not unexpected. The markets closed above the previous week's highs and the Dow cash is now a mere 250 points away from key four-week-old resistance. Furthermore, a weekly chart shows cup formation bottoms in all the major indices. We probably won't see new lows for awhile. The future of the move's existing lows are more nebulous.
The daily charts show a more bearish bias, a function of the hyper speed and magnitude of the rise. Again, it was overdue, but we'll probably see some softness as weak investors look to cash in on better prices. Support in the S&P futures is at 748.50-750.00, 729.25 and 710.00-710.75. Strong resistance sits at 770.00-776.25.
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.
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