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Weekly Market Outlook
By Dave Mecklenburg | Published  03/30/2009 | Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks | Unrated
Weekly Market Outlook

This week could be the moment of truth for the markets.  After a three-week bull rally, economic reports this week will tell us if the economy is recovering or if there is still much more pain ahead.  What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?

Here’s the list of 7 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:

Barclay’s (BCS), Accenture (ACN), Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR), Centerpoint Energy (CNP), Exelon Corp. (EXE), Mirant Corp (MIR), Northeast Utilities (NU).

Adrian Manz, Stock Intraday Trader

The mirror image down and up moves in the indices have definitely given traders plenty to talk about.  These types of extreme moves often happen in tandem, but the persistency of the price action on both sides of the slide and recovery during the past six weeks has been extraordinary.  The pause and reversal on Friday indicates that the 7935 floor of the four-month trading range established between November and February will again provide resistance and support for the Dow as we move into the second quarter of 2009.  I would call this good news, particularly if the market retraces a portion of the recent move higher (let’s say 50%), and then retests the 7935 area a few times before moving up and into the previous range.  On the other hand, I would turn downright bullish if we had a successful retest of the 6500 low, followed by a move higher to 7935 and beyond.  This would represent significant constructive price action, and possibly the presence of a mid-term bottom.

In the coming week, I will focus on the Financials, as the results of the stress tests begin to affect price action.  Most notable in the group for trading early in the week is Barclay’s (BCS), which was pushed higher in a Line Drive move on Friday after the results of British stress tests were announced.  The ADR will be on my radar throughout the week for additional tradeable price action.  In business services, I will watch Accenture (ACN) for evidence of constructive price action on the heels of the Baltimore Chop gap move lower in Friday’s trading.  Another Baltimore Chop move played out very well in Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) on Friday, and we will look for trend pullback entry opportunities in both the 5-minute and 25-tick compressions in early trading this week.

Plus, watch Adrian Manz's video for Monday trading action. 
http://traderinsight.com/Video/Adrian/033009/033009.html

Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader

The markets enjoyed another week of solid gains, making this the third in a row.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ posted 6% gains.  All but one of the 209 industry groups were in the positive.  The rally this month has been the largest and most dynamic in the last 70 years.  Thanks to last week’s announcement from Treasury Secretary Geithner outlining the framework for the toxic asset plan.  I don’t mean to be a killjoy but, there are some concerning underpinnings.  The fuel has been in three industry groups that were the most oversold year to date.  This is telling me that some bottom feeders were looking for a few bargains.  Volume was above average but not impressive, which gives the impression that the bears were sitting on the sidelines letting the bulls have their way.  With the market in an overbought state, a relief sell-off is likely.

Looking forward this week, the economic calendar will have several important releases, which include Consumer Confidence, several bond auctions, and Friday's employment number.  Most market movement will still come from Washington.

With the markets in overbought mode, I’m leaning towards some short-term selling pressure to resume.  The areas that I will be looking at are the industry groups that did not have a strong rally over the last few weeks, specifically, groups that went along for the ride without any apparent sponsorship from the institutions.  Diversified Utilities are a good example of this.  The stocks that I will be watching for some sign of weakness are Centerpoint Energy (CNP), Exelon Corp. (EXE), Mirant Corp (MIR), and Northeast Utilities (NU).

Art Collins, Index Futures Trader

I'm a big believer in going opposite what looks like carbon copy replays.  We had a down Friday a week ago, March 20, followed by the biggest screaming up day of the year.  This last Friday was also a down day and I'm betting against history repeating itself.

There are two other reasons I'm expecting a Monday sell-off.  The market is overbought.  The indices all formed cap tops -- three-day formations in which both the highest high and highest close occurred in the second, or middle day.  The rest of the week is nebulous.  Technically, we are in an immediate-term bull market, but obviously that can change at the first sign of any negative fundamentals.  I think the key number to watch is the 830.50 high that was made in the June mini-S&Ps.  If we can't mount any offense against that level, we should see a lower weekly close.

Plus, watch Art Collins' one-minute video. http://traderinsight.com/Videos/Art/033009/033009.html

Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.