Weekly Market Outlook |
By Dave Mecklenburg |
Published
04/6/2009
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Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks
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Unrated
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Weekly Market Outlook
The stock market is in a bull rally. Does that mean the pain is over or are we setting up for another sell-off? What do the professional traders of TraderInsight.com think?
Here’s the list of 4 stocks our professional traders will be watching this week:
Assured Guaranty (AGO), CSX Corp (CSX), Home Properties Inc (HME), Magna International (MGA)
Adrian Manz, Stock Intraday Trader
Anticipating the next turn in this market is a dicey proposition. I believe that the recent mirror image moves, lower then higher, represent an important construct in terms of the dynamics going forward. The talking heads are focused only on the rapid move higher, but the reality is that the move to the downside was equally violent, and in terms of the broader markets, represented a larger loss in real dollars than the impressive percentage move to the upside. It looks to me as if we are firmly back in the range that I referred to for many months as the Dow box, and that the excursion lower was a successful, albeit short-lived retest of multi-year lows. I would be far more comfortable with the prospects going forward if we had another test of the bottom followed by a more gradual and orderly climb. That would imply constructive price action and a genuine belief on the part of investors that a value range has been established. The current price action feels more like traders and hedge funds are piling on to catch a wave of profits on the short-term upside. That leaves the future of the indices in question, particularly in light of the geopolitical risk associated with recession and instability abroad.
For the early part of the coming week, I will focus on catching moves higher in the stocks that boomed over the past few session, leaving either Fast Ball or Backdoor Slider setups. Assured Guaranty (AGO), CSX Corp (CSX), Home Properties Inc (HME) and Magna International (MGA) all fit the bill and will be on the radar for continuation thrusts higher.
Tom Incorvia, Stock Swing Trader
The broader averages put another week in the win column making it four in a row. The S&P 500 added a little over 3% for the week and the NASDAQ posted a better than 5% increase. Believe it or not, the NASDAQ is actually positive for the calendar year. The rally over the last four weeks has been dramatic, adding over 20% to the markets value. In fact, the markets have not seen a rally this strong and quick since 1938. This is all great but will the rally continue?
By definition, this rally is considered a bear market rally. However, there is no strong natural buying of leadership sectors. The volume has been less than impressive. The buying that has taken place has been in the sectors that have been beaten up over the last several months. Sectors like Banking, Insurance and Conglomerates were hit the hardest in the sell-off and now are getting a little bounce. The rally has the feel of the bears taking a break and allowing the bulls push up prices. The markets are by most measurement overbought and a sell-off is expected. I do want to quantify this by saying that a market could stay overbought or oversold for a long time. When you get in markets like this, trending higher and overbought, you have to use extreme discipline and patience.
Art Collins, Index Futures Trader
There's no question that we are in the middle of a bull move. Whether it's a major bull move ending the financial crisis or a mere bull rally within a bear trend is not relevant in my opinion. You have to trade the environment you're in. What comes later has to be dealt with in its own time.
I'm particularly impressed that the June S&P futures were able to remain above the gap created on Thursday. Support now rests at the lows that ranged from 823.00 to 823.20. Should that level be penetrated, the next target would be the bottom of the gap, or 810.30. Overhead resistance is 832.80 -834.80.
Dave Mecklenburg is the Editor-in-Chief of TigerSharkTrading.com.
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