Fundamental Outlook for Japanese Yen: Neutral

- The final reading of Japanese Q1 GDP was revised up to -14.2% from -15.2%
- Japanese Finance Minister Yosano called Japan’s trust in US Treasuries “unshakable.”
- Japanese consumer confidence improved for the fifth straight month

The Japanese yen the past week mostly lower, as FX carry trades made headway. However, the inability of US equities to make a clear break above their recent highs and tight consolidations suggest that the JPY crosses could see some sort of break this coming week.

This weekend the Group of 8 (G8) will meet, and while it may ultimately prove to be a non-event, traders should keep an eye out for the communiqué as indications that exit strategies for the stimulus measures enacted by the member countries are being plotted could provide a boost to risk appetite when trading resumes on Sunday. Though highly unlikely, discussions about currencies would be sure to shake up the markets as well.

On Monday, just before midnight, the Bank of Japan is anticipated to announce that they are leaving rates unchanged at 0.10 percent, but this is not the part of the central bank’s announcement that will garner the most attention. Instead, the FX markets may only respond to the sentiment reflected in their subsequent policy statement. After the BOJ’s last meeting, they raised their outlook on the economy for the first time in nearly 3 years, saying that “economic conditions have been deteriorating, but exports and production are beginning to level out.” There is speculation that the BOJ will upgrade their outlook once again, and if this is the case, the Japanese yen could gain on a very short-term basis. On a longer-term basis, though, risk trends have been driving price action and the impact of positive BOJ commentary may not go very far.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.