1. US Empire Manufacturing
2. New Zealand Consumer Prices
3. UK RICS House Price Balance

US Empire Manufacturing (OCT) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EDT)
Previous: 17
Outlook: 19

Outlook: Manufacturing in the New York region is expected to recover slightly in October as US producers emerge from slowdowns following hurricane Katrina's landfall in late August and hurricane Rita's later in September.  Rebuilding efforts following the storm are actually expected to benefit overall manufacturing across the US as demand for materials and equipment follows in the storms wakes.  Producers will also benefit as prices have continued to rise throughout the month as managers and business leaders slowly, but successfully, begin to pass on their mounting energy costs to consumers.  However, higher energy prices remain a major burden to consumer and manufacturers alike.  This will keep manufacturing from making a full recovery to healthy pre-hurricane levels just yet, but sentiments are improving, if just slowly.

Previous: Manufacturing in the New York area dropped in September, with the Empire Manufacturing Index easing to 17 from 23 in August, and coming approximately in line with expectations.  With the numbers still well above zero, the fallout from Hurricane Katrina and Rita may not have damaged the economy as much as originally expected.  In the prices paid portion of the index, however, the impact was felt as input costs jumped from 29 to 53.41 in September, the largest increase since records started in 2001.  The survey was taken early in the month so it largely reflects the immediate sentiment in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the peaking of energy prices at that time.

New Zealand Consumer Prices (3Q) (QoQ) (21:45 GMT; 17:45 EDT)
Consensus:      1.2%
Previous:      0.9%

Outlook: Consumer prices likely further accelerated in the third quarter as housing and fuel costs continued to burdened pocketbooks.  Without substantial curbs in spending, the central bank is likely to further mull over a short-term rate hike in the near future.  Overnight, Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard warned of imbalances and “significant excess” resulting from a spending binge in New Zealand, which is ominously hawkish language for a central bank chairman.  Consumer prices probably rose 1.2 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter or 3.4 percent from the same period a year ago.  Factors lending themselves to support the suspected rise in inflation have already presented themselves.  Gasoline prices rose 12 percent in the third quarter, the effects of which translated into a surge in transportation costs and other essential goods and services.  Excluding gasoline, the headline inflation rate remained high because of the sustained momentum in the economy.  Furthermore, home building costs, the largest contributor to inflation 11 of the past 12 quarters, continue to grow at a fast rate.  Consumers are able to sustain their rate of spending probably due to improved optimism with the unemployment rate keeping at a record low 2.7 percent.  

Previous: During the second quarter, New Zealand inflation accelerated as imported fuel costs and rising housing prices help boost growth.  Consumer prices rose 0.9 percent from the first quarter, coming in line with expectations.  On an annual basis, prices were up 2.8 percent from the same quarter a year ago.   This level brings the measure close to the upper-end of the central bank's 1-3 percent target, leaving a rate hike from the main lending rate's all-time high of 6.75 percent an unlikely proposition anytime in the near future.  Initial rises in energy prices that started to slow down the global economy were cushioned for New Zealand as appreciation in the offset some of the mounting costs.  Meanwhile, Central Bank Governor Alan Bollard sees economic growth slowing to 2.9 percent in 2005 from 4.8 percent last year and an even slower 2.2 percent in 2006.

UK RICS House Price Balance (SEP) (23:30 GMT, 19:30 EDT)
Consensus: -22
Previous: -26

Outlook: Economists are expecting the RICS house price balance to post another record figure in September's report. If the forecast figure of -22 is realized, it would be the fifth consecutive rise in the index. The demand-boosting effect of August's interest rate cut may have carried over into September activity. After the latest house price figures from the ODPM, a comment was made by RICS suggesting that buying interest has indeed risen further since August due to the rate cut. Looking at September house price data already released by other sources, the figures range from a fall of 0.4% in the Rightmove index to a 1.2% increase reported by Halifax. Unsurprisingly, the reports are somewhat differing and contradictory, but the overall trend, which should also appear in the RICS report, seems to be that the rates of change are flattening out.

Previous: August's house price balance, reported by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, reached the highest level in a year of -26, showing less widespread house price decreases. The picture seems to be one of increasing price stability. In not seasonally adjusted numbers, 59% of those surveyed reported that prices stayed the same in August, the highest figure in four months. Selling activity has also calmed down with the supply of homes up for sale down to 74.6 from 77.4 on average per responding surveyors' office. Meanwhile, demand grew slightly with a three-month moving average of 22.7 reported, compared to July's 22.4 figure. This has been fueled by the August interest rate cut as well as record levels of employment. In light of the recent trend of falling house prices, August's report indicates stabilization in the market. However, with the market expecting more rate cuts in the next year, the stabilization stands a chance of turning into an upturn.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.