Energies
A choppy energy market tried to find a home in the lower $60 region this week, but appears to be building more of a trend line resistance (most recently below $65) and should find itself in the sub-$60 arena within the next two weeks.  I continue to recommend selling calls on bounces and buying bear put spreads.  Additionally, the natural gas market will have difficulty sustaining such a wide spread against other cold weather energy alternatives and should be the place to bet on a collapse regardless of the individual commodity?s current supply issues.  Put prices remain relatively inexpensive and I would suggest an OTM synthetic short play here by buying a Dec. $11 put and selling an $18 or $20 call to benefit from the excessive call premiums.

Financials
As the S&P breaks to fresh lows the main question that enters this long term bear?s mind is whether or not this is yet another of a ridiculous quantity of fake outs this market has given us in the past couple of years?  Regardless of whether it is a bull breakout or a bear breakdown, this market lacks follow through capability.  Nevertheless all signs point to considerable downside potential as we envelope ourselves into a fourth quarter that should be capped by a dying retail sales market.  I continue to foresee a push further south but would like to reenter the market around 1200 before putting too many chips in the pile.  The bond market on the other hand is showing a clear foreign fleeing of US treasuries and should continue to see selling pressure on bounces and the potential for a complete market failure.  Look for any opportunity to buy puts and short futures here.  The dollar is pushing towards the upper side of my range bound dollar forecast which would place a topside below 92 and a bottom around 87 (although slightly broken on the most recent selloff) through the end of ?05.  Overall the currency market is a great short strangle option play for the next two to three months.  The Canadian remains a strong sell based on a declining oil market that should put pressure on the commodity growth function of the Canadian economy. 

Grains
A bullish crop production and S&D report this week broke beans through critical 5.89 gap resistance and gives the market some momentum and a likely free ride through $6 psychological resistance and beyond.  Corn and wheat should follow on its coattails despite lack luster figures.  Buying corn futures with puts as protection and straight wheat calls are still good plays.  The rice market may pull a fake out retracement in the short term but I am not buying into it.  Get long this market and if you are November plays, roll out early and get into January ? it may take a month or two for this market to play out.

Meats
Cattle collapsed hard on Friday as beef supply weakened and concerns over consumer spending and the net effect on demand for ever higher beef prices forced a potential top in this market.  I highly recommend jumping on the bandwagon as this market could be at 84 fast.  Hogs also remain a sell although the Dec. contract may bounce as the support for near term October delivery was strong enough to put a base in the market at this value. 

Metals
Gold gave in a bit this week but finished with a strong Friday comeback and continues to puzzle this bear.  When crude fails in the next week or so I suspect a $10+ one day fall is in store for this market.  I strongly recommend 440-470 Dec. puts to play the short term unwinding of this fake bull rally.  Silver is offering signs of surging to higher ground, but the gut says it is short lived and even with a move to 8.15 it is doomed to be a sub-$7 commodity in the next couple of months.  Copper formed another nice top and while it is difficult to want to short a seemingly endless bull run, the market offers put buyers some great potential if your timing is remotely solid.  Buy March 150-140 bear puts spreads and give it the time to fail.  Platinum remains a sell and palladium a value buy.

Softs
Coffee turned off the afterburners on its recent price surge and has some seriously critical resistance ahead of itself between 108-110 and then a triple top at around 113.  I am bull but want to see that breakout before putting too much stock into the recent move.  Buying some Dec. 90 puts would be an interesting flyer play.  Cocoa is a buy and a half ? get on this before we are at 1700.  Cotton broke out and is out of its bear mode, but my gut says buy the cheap puts for March and don?t get faked out here.  Sugar is building a false top and, despite not having a logical reason, will likely make another surge higher.  Lumber is avoidable but tumbling downhill nonetheless. OJ remains a breakout bull buy.