Energies

Oil has likely topped in the near term and commodities in general have crossed over both technically and fundamentally. Expect a strong push back to $63 in front month crude oil and similar declines across the energy sector. This week may offer some choppy trade, but do not be fooled as the trend is still negative.

Financials

The market went and tested 900 as expected but quickly supported out, suggesting the market is inclined to buy the dips. I still see a two steps forward and one step back trading action in this market and would buy at these levels even if I am a little nervous about the Fed meeting and housing numbers this week. Go long with call options to take advantage of the low Vix numbers and potential volatile upside off these announcements. More importantly, use the calls because if we break the lows it could get ugly and I would not want to be stuck in futures if we get a wash out. Bonds remain neutral to bearish. The dollar continues to be a buy for me. The yen has surprised me a bit and I remain bearish but would rather look at shorting the euro or pound as a preference over the yen. The peso and Canadian dollar are also bear plays here.

Grains

If you trade technicals with lagging indicators then you would likely be heavily short these markets. Seasonally you would be short as well. Fundamentally the crops are coming along without huge hiccups. But when has this ever stopped us from trading contrarian in these markets? Grains this time of year are worthy of a technical fade - meaning trade opposite the market with quick exits and you are likely to come out on top if we remain choppy. There is not enough here to force long liquidation so I expect this sector to hold up amid a number of falling commodity sectors.

Meats

Cattle remains bullish with a stop below the recent lows. Hogs are a sell despite recent talks of rising demand as fears of irrational swine flu connections to hogs are put to rest - I don't buy it. This market has more to fall.

Metals

Gold and silver took a bit of a bath this week as a strong dollar pressures metals. Declining commodity prices, a choppy stock market and a strong dollar spell plummeting metals prices. Sell gold, silver, copper and platinum. Palladium remains a contrarian buy.



Softs

Coffee plunged through support as optimal fundamental reports and a strong dollar pressure this long term buy of a commodity market. Buy this dip at 118. Cocoa nosedived as the strike ended in the Ivory Coast as expected. This market could see a quick shocking move to 1800 in a blink of an eye. Cotton remains a long term buy on dips. Volatility is picking up in cotton and I expect a strong upside breakout in coming weeks. Sugar is a short term sell with a reversal buy between 1350-1400 on October. OJ is a value buy on any dips as we head into hurricane season. Lumber is a buy to 250.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.