Let’s notice that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) has recovered all of yesterday’s weakness and in fact has climbed to a marginal new recovery high this morning on the way to my next optimal target zone of 52.50/80. The better-than-expected ADB Employment guestimate ahead of the government’s report tomorrow morning, in addition to the burst in oil prices, likely have scared the bond traders a bit –- against an already “excess supply” background. Increasingly the recent pattern and RSI configuration are looking like a rounded base formation in development. Tomorrow’s data could present the next catalyst for lower bond prices.

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.