The Wagner Daily ETF Report For July 21 |
By Deron Wagner |
Published
07/21/2009
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Stocks
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Unrated
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The Wagner Daily ETF Report For July 21
The stock market continued its impressive winning streak yesterday, as the major indices scored another round of solid gains. Stocks gapped higher on the open, oscillated in a narrow range throughout most of the day, then made a final push higher in the last hour of trading. Registering its ninth straight win, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.2%, as the S&P 500 finished 1.1% higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap 400 indices logged identical gains of 1.5%. All the main stock market indexes again closed near their best levels of the day.
Total volume in the Nasdaq swelled 11%, enabling the tech-heavy index to log a bullish "accumulation day." However, turnover remained below its 50-day average level. Volume in the NYSE was 13% lighter than the previous day's level, and also slower than average. As the "summer doldrums" are now in full swing, it's not surprising that the pace of trading has been lethargic. So far this month, both the NYSE and Nasdaq have had only two sessions in which volume was greater than average. Yesterday's market internals confirmed the bullish session. In both exchanges, advancing volume exceeded declining volume by more than 3 to 1.
Yesterday, we sold our position in iPath India Index (INP), which we bought for a "swing trade" on July 8. The trade worked out well, yielding a gain of more than 13% on a hold time of less than two weeks. The initial entry was made because INP was a strong international ETF that had pulled back to "undercut" major support of its 50-day moving average, as well as a large breakaway "gap" from two months prior. After drifting around below its 50-day MA for a few more days, INP resumed its dominant uptrend, rallying all the way back to test the area of its prior highs yesterday. For educational purposes, we've annotated our entry and exit points on the daily chart below:
After taking profits on INP, we subsequently sent an Intraday Trade Alert to subscribers, informing them of our new buy entry into CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY). On July 8, FXY broke out above a significant area of horizontal price resistance, on volume that was more than 600% greater than average. Since then, FXY has been drifting lower, but reversed after coming into support of its 20-day EMA and prior "swing high" yesterday afternoon. Taking advantage of the pullback to support, we bought FXY with the expectation of a positive reward/risk ratio for the trade. Our initial protective stop is just below the 50-day moving average (the teal line on the chart below):
Going into today, we're still stalking various tech-related ETFs for pullback buy entries. We're also monitoring CurrencyShares British Pound (FXB) for potential buy entry, on a breakout above major price consolidation (as discussed and illustrated in our July 17 commentary). Today, the S&P and Dow are likely to test pivotal resistance of their June 2009 highs. We'll be watching these levels closely, to see whether or not both indexes manage to join the Nasdaq at a new nine-month high. Because the overall market has been acting well, there's no reason to assume resistance of the June highs will spark a substantial correction; nevertheless, it's a possibility of which one should be cognizant.
Open ETF positions:
Long - FXY Short - (none)
Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Trader of both Morpheus Capital LP, a U.S. hedge fund, and MorpheusTrading.com, a trader education firm.
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