The natural gas inventory figures came in more or less as expected, which in this market is a victory! Otherwise, the tame inventory data really should not be a surprise. If we are to believe what my near and intermediate work is telling us, the worst of the gas bear market is behind us, and now we are in the arduous "base-building" phase (measured in weeks) prior to a sustainable powerful upmove. For the time being, yesterday’s low at 12.32 followed by the climb to 12.90 so far has the right look of the intitiation of a new upleg that continues to advance from July 13 to July 23. If my work proves correct, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) is on the way to revisit 14.00 next.

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.