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Indices Rally, But Give Back A Big Chunk Of Post-FOMC Gains
http://www.tigersharktrading.com/articles/16420/1/Indices-Rally-But-Give-Back-A-Big-Chunk-Of-Post-FOMC-Gains/Page1.html
By Harry Boxer
Published on 08/12/2009
 

The indices had a volatile session, particularly in the afternoon after the FOMC made their announcement.


Indices Rally, But Give Back A Big Chunk Of Post-FOMC Gains

The indices had a volatile session, particularly in the afternoon after the FOMC made their announcement. But the day started off with a bang at the get-go, with a very strong rally that saw the Nasdaq 100 run from 1594 to 1625 inside the first 1-1 1/2 hours. The S&P 500 at that point ran from 993 to 1008. They spent the next couple hours backing and filling and consolidating, rolled over after the FOMC announcement, and then snapped back after holding secondary support sharply. It appeared there was massive short covering as the indices gapped up intraday. After another 45 minutes of consolidation, they failed to break out, and in the last 20 minutes rolled over sharply to take back a big chunk of the gains.

Still, net on the day the Dow was up 120 to 9361.61, after reaching as high as 9424 and change. The S&P 500 closed at 1005.81, up 11.46, but had a 1012.78 high earlier, and the Nasdaq 100 was 15 points off its high at 1619.59, but still up 24.90 today.

The technicals were positive by a little less than 3 to 1 on advance-declines on New York and 2 1/2 to 1 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 4 1/2 to 1 positive on New York on total volume of under 1.2 billion. Nasdaq traded over 2.1 billion and had a 5 to 1 positive volume ratio.

TheTechTrader.com board was mostly higher as a result of today’s positive action. Leading the way was Goldman Sachs (GS), up 4.54 to 163.76. The Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) gained 3.61 to 71.15.

Potash (POT) advanced 1.05 to 95.02, and Mosaic (MOS) 1.12 at 53.04, Former portfolio position OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals (OGXI) jumped 1 to 30.63.

The junior biotech sector was strong today, with Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) up 76 cents to 14.02, Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT) 43 cents to 12.84 , OREX 29 cents to 7.96, Oncothyreon (ONTY) 24 cents to 5.94, Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) 70 cents to 7.22 on 8 ½ million, Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) 48 cents to 16.21 on 8.5 million, and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) 64 cents to 9.78 today.

Brigham Exploration (BEXP), a former portfolio position, exploded today, reaching past 8, up more than 200% in the last 4 weeks. However, it backed off to close at 7.66, still up 88 cents on more than 6 million traded.

The U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) gained 49 cents to 37.35, as oil was up back over $70 again.

On the downside, the Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) lost 1.48 to 26.73, and the Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) 93 cents to 25.71. The UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) shed just 14 cents to 12.17, and the the Direxion Small Cap 3x Bear (TZA) gave back 73 cents to 15.05.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were up sharply at the opening, consolidated mid-day, rolled over after the FOMC announcement, but came back with a strong surge only to roll over again in the last hour and take back a big portion of the post-FOMC afternoon rally.

They made nominal new 2009 highs today on the Nasdaq 100, only to sell off sharply, but did not confirm on the S&P 500. So it’ll be very interesting to see what kind of follow-through they get, as often the day after the FOMC announcement the indices head in the opposite direction.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com.