Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bearish

- Germany and France unexpectedly post positive growth in the second quarter
- Investor sentiment gauge rises to a 12 month high
- Euro Zone consumer-level inflation hits a new record low

The euro was exceptionally volatile last week; but this wasn’t unusual given the pace that the rest of the currency market was running at. What was unusual though was the sharp selloff through Friday. Was this merely a sympathy move to EURUSD? Does weak inflation really have that much influence over price action? Or perhaps there are larger fundamental concerns putting pressure on the market. Though there is smattering of event risk in the week ahead; the world’s second most liquid currency will likely find its pace through the same forces that have driven the US dollar, Japanese yen and commodity bloc: risk appetite and outlook for growth.

For some fundamental traders, the euro’s tumble through the end of this past week probably comes as a surprise after the better than expected GDP numbers Thursday. Seemingly leading the western world in its slow recovery from its worst slump since WWII; Germany and France reported growth of 0.3 percent through the second quarter (against forecasts for contractions of 0.2 and 0.3 percent respectively). As the two largest member economies of the Euro Zone, this could be construed as clear evidence that the region’s recovery could surpass that of the US, UK or Japan in tempo and scope. However, such a qualification should be made with a greater breadth of analysis. The advance reading of the Euro Zone’s 2Q GDP reading (advanced because nearly half of the member economies’ readings were not yet available for inclusion) reported a smaller-than-expected contraction of 0.1 percent through the three month period; but nonetheless the fifth consecutive decline. Holding the headline numbers back from posting expansion, Italy contracted 0.5 percent and Spain reported its sharpest decline on record. In the end, everything in FX is relative; so on the whole, the modest contraction in the euro space matches the same moderating clip that the US reported. At any rate, the approaching milestone of reaching positive growth is losing its influence over fundamental traders as the evidence for a stagnate period of expansion into 2010 and beyond piles up.

Another enduring concern for traders is the stability of Europe’s financial markets. While nationalistic interests has led Germany and France to take an optimistic outlook for their respective economies and calls to work down deficits, there are many economies under the EU umbrella that are the brink of experiencing market failure. The IMF has projected Ireland’s banking system could lose as much as 35 billion euros through the coming year and some Eastern European countries are struggling to balance their economy recovery with the requirements attached to their massive loans. If there were one threat that surpassed all others, it would be the outstanding loans euro-denominated loans from the Eastern European region. During the boom years, these countries borrowed – in euros – from their western neighbors. In fact, some economies have debt in excess of 100 percent of GDP including Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia and Estonia. As large swaths of these loans come due, the threat of default grows. It may not seem so; but stability is still fragile. A sovereign insolvency could easily catalyze a greater credit event that seizes the rest of Europe and perhaps the world.

While the bigger themes play out on the market; we will also have a few notable economic releases that can provided predictable periods of volatility. There will be two themes to follow for the week. This month’s investor sentiment readings from the ZEW surveyors is expected to benefit from recent growth reports and the extension of the capital market’s recovery through July and August. The PMI data due at the end of the week, in contrast, may have a little more lasting influence on the fundamental bearing of the euro. After the quarterly GDP numbers, these monthly figures are the next best thing to a growth report. Is the Euro Zone really heading for a stagnant recovery?

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