The week ahead will be driven by a complete failure in the stock market. The recent momentum buying that occurred off the half hearted pullback is about as obvious of a bull head fake as I have seen in a while - this is my humble opinion of course. Sell into the stock market surge and expect a dollar run and commodity pullback as anticipated this week.

Energies

Oil surged through the secondary top that had formed two weeks ago and appears very bullish on a technical level. I think it has a chance to stop everyone out by setting a fresh high but then failing miserably as it tests $60 very quickly. I recommend selling into this move by buying natural gas futures and selling crude oil futures on a spread 1 to 1. Natural gas has spread so far from oil that it is truly historic, and at this point that spread could get out of hand. I am inclined to be a buyer of the spread (playing it to tighten) will a little patience for it to play out. You could accomplish this with straight calls on nat gas and straight puts on crude oil.

Financials

The stock market catapulted off the recent retracement as solid housing numbers and a general euphoria is supporting the market. I am super contrarian when this type of thing happens. Keep in mind I have been bullish for much of this rally, but this time around the market is in for a shocking plunge to 980 and below in a very short time frame. This, in my opinion mind you, looks like a suckers rally at this point and I would sell a Monday rally. Bonds remain a buy on dips in anticipation of a stock market pullback, which also sets up the dollar to rally once again. The Canadian dollar is a highly recommended short at these levels.

Grains

Reasonably good weather conditions persist for grains, supported only by the weakness in the dollar and strength in oil and stocks this past week. Sell into this rally as I just don't see it having legs. Puts on corn and soybeans are recommended, while wheat remains a value grain buy. Rice option premiums have fallen amid a lack of volatility, suggesting a put play here is worth a look.

Meats

Cattle has been stuck in a tight channel all year, chopping between 79 and 89 with no clear direction. While I continue to expect a selloff due to lower grain input costs, the right play here is a long strangle to play the low volatility and potential for price expansion as this choppy pattern is likely to give way on the next test of the highs or lows. Hogs remain a buy here with a bull call spread recommended for February.

Metals

Silver fell out of bed last week but supported as gold strengthened amid a U.S. dollar pullback. The precious metals remain very dollar tied and therefore I am recommending bear put spreads in both gold and silver. Copper is also a sell along with platinum.

Softs

Coffee downside remains limited in my eyes so buying this dip is recommended even if the dollar is expected to bounce. Vietnam harvest is going to be nasty and there could be some shocking results there. Cocoa is likely to see some selling pressure as a strong Ivory Coast crop due to ideal crop weather conditions could offer some much needed supply to this market. Cotton remains a buy on dips as acreage concerns continue to be the focal point. OJ is a buy on the dip, but hurricane season can offer some volaility, so look to buy calls instead of futures. A lot of short covering on this recent rally likely wiped out some players in this low volume market, which means a light volume selloff that should be bought. Sugar remains in hypermode as the market continues to feel the threat of a real shortage. Long strangles are recommended as the volatiliy could easily go up several more notches from here.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.