Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral

- Euro fails to hold gains despite fourth straight German IFO improvement
- German Consumer Price Index report boosts fears of deflation
- Consumer confidence data nonetheless boosts fundamental forecasts

The Euro saw yet another week of incredibly choppy trade, finishing the week almost exactly unchanged despite surging near year-to-date highs against the US Dollar. The last week of summer trading produced brief moments of sharp price moves and uneventful price action at moments in between. Relatively wide bid/ask spreads on major currency pairs underlined that market conditions remained illiquid—making short-term currency forecasts all but impossible. We expect that market conditions will improve through the first week of September trading, and it will be important to watch whether the Euro and US Dollar embark on new trends to start the trading year.

The vaunted “September effect” typically stipulates that stock markets typically fare worst through September, and a fall in risky assets would likely benefit the safe-haven US Dollar. In the past 10 years, the US S&P 500 has lost an average of approximately 30 points through September—by far its worst tally in any month of the year. Past performance is hardly a guarantee of future results, but it will nonetheless be important to watch for a turnaround in recently high-flying risky asset classes. The very fact that the S&P 500 has set fresh year-to-date highs through end of week trade underlines the risks of noteworthy pullback, and this may be one of the most important FX market themes in the week ahead. A busy week of European economic event risk likewise promises eventful price action through the coming days.

The combination of European and US employment figures could finally provide clear impetus for sustained Euro/US Dollar moves. German and EU officials report on regional unemployment on Tuesday the 1st of September—setting the tone for the subsequent month of fundamental data. Both are expected to show continued deterioration in unemployment rates and underline downside risks to economic growth. Subsequent Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product revisions are expected to show a modest downgrade to second quarter expansion numbers, but the true fireworks will likely come on the following day’s European Central Bank interest rate decision.

The ECB is very widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged—ostensibly leaving little risk for major volatility. Yet recent price action has taught us to expect the unexpected, and markets will be paying close attention to any shifts in rhetoric from the regional central bank. Officials will likewise release their new economic outlooks for the Euro Zone, and any surprises could likewise produce reactions in the Euro itself.

Last but most certainly not least, traders should keep a lookout for US Nonfarm Payroll results on Friday. Continued improvements in US employment numbers leave economists expecting a slowdown in job losses. Yet any surprises could easily cause substantial Euro/US dollar moves.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the forex market.