Energies
Energies acted according to plan this week with some choppy, but ultimately weak, price action that put us below the $60 mark just ahead of forecast.   Many will argue that the market is incapable of returning to sub-$2 prices at the pump or $30/barrel pricing, but I see a post hurricane season and a warmer than anticipated start to the winter offering the supply side a chance to play catch-up and the market spiraling downward in a steady retracement that makes bear plays in all energies the place to be for months to come. 

Financials
The stock market erased an odd 20 point rally in the S&P the following day, and then showed signs of true self destruction ahead by establishing a strong top just above 1200.  The market is in for a rough go of it, and it would take a substantial break and close above that resistance to indicate any relief in sight.  I continue to be a cautious bear, however, as the market has gone years without true follow through on any breakout or breakdown.  Bonds supported out and found a strong bid on Friday following a flight to quality after the weakness showed up in the stock market.  I still see a high likelihood of a collapse in treasury prices, mainly by foreign buyers bailing out in a mass exodus fashion as the market self perpetuates its own destruction.  The dollar remains strong but range bound, continuing to hold the 87-92 forecast I made months ago to hole through the end of the year.  I still recommend short strangles in the euro and dollar index as volatility levels remain high.  The Canadian is a break below 84 away from forcing a technical setup for a major retracement, backed by oil?s failure in this commodity dependant country?s economy. 

Grains
I don?t know about you, but 5.994 in beans as a psychological top just doesn?t sit well with me, and my gut says beans are a strong buy as it fills its gap from a week and a half ago?s grain stock report.  Look for a support to develop immediately and a move back above $6 in short order.  Wheat is a solid technical buy.  The growing consensus around a declining value in corn as it used as bird feed (given the rising concerns for the bird flu virus) may stall the market short term, but ultimately it may not be enough to detach corn?s stronghold as a substitutive commodity.  Grains as a whole may suffer from this market perception but short term supply and demand force the hand of pricing and not fear.

Meats
Live cattle showed weakness as the market prepared for the cattle on feed report after Friday?s close.  The numbers came in a bit low but the market forecast should not allow for this to be a bear on the market.  Moreover, Thailand lifted the US beef ban and might give Japan the push it needs to do the same.  Many realize that Japan has their own team of so called experts evaluating the risk and will likely not jump the gun on lifting the ban any time soon.  Overall I remain a bear cattle trader, looking for a quick retracement to 85 or lower.  Hogs may just be done with its retracement, but overall there is little here to get me excited.  The market could easily develop a pennant and consolidate in this price range for many months, and until a major break occurs I would either sell premium or stand aside.

Metals
Selling pressure came in waves this week, as a declining inflationary concerns from the oil front and a strengthening US dollar put pressure on gold bulls. The market appears to be setup to repeat a pattern of breaking critical resistance and then quickly retracing 10% or more.  Look for continued weakness here and a move to the 450 area before mid-November.  Silver is quietly playing behind the gold market and will need to selloff to play catch-up if gold gives us another leg down like I suspect it will.  Copper?s failure this week may be just the beginning ? remember the bigger and taller they are the harder they fall.  This market has tripled and when the top is in there is some serious money to be made here.  Platinum is a sell and palladium remains a buy.

Softs
Bullish OJ numbers on the close on Friday may take a back burner to Wilma issues.  Overall the market is ready to explode to the upside and is deserving of some serious long term investment consideration.  After all, this market went from only a frost season weather market to adding a 5 month hurricane season to its weather problems, and I do not foresee that issue dissipating for years to come.  Traders talk about crude oil being in an epic shift in its pricing and supply and demand structure, and that cattle prices may be permanently higher based on rising demand for beef and low carb dieters.  I say its all a bunch of hooey and traders should look at a market like OJ, with stable demand and seemingly long term shift in its supply concerns.  Coffee is very close to breaking critical 108-113 resistance and given the growing fears of permanent inventory damage from Katrina, this market may just have what it takes.  I like buying March bull spreads and December 95 puts to hedge against a failure on its attempts at a breakout in the near term.  Cocoa is a buy.  Cotton is all over the map, and despite the recent breakout I remain a bear until the long term technicals or fundamental picture changes.  Sugar is losing momentum but the chart is hard to do anything but stand aside and shake your ahead that you missed most of the big move.  Better to make money and miss more than to give all away chasing a shooting star.  I think they call that no being greedy.