Energies
Energies surged higher once again as weather fears and general supply concerns surround the market.  Out of the money call premiums skyrocketed this week and I would highly recommend selling May and June calls about 8-15% away from the market on bounce days.  I said it last week, and I'll say it again - I am short energies even if we break to fresh highs.

Financials
Stocks surged to new contract highs and seems ready to explode after a positive surprise on today's employment numbers.  Nevertheless, I remain a cautious bear, looking for a break below 1200 before throwing my chips in again.  If today's highs hold up on Monday, I would recommend a short with stops above the highs for a swing trade.  Bonds rallied, contrary to the fundamental news today, and appear to have found some value buyers after the post-Greenspeak breakdown.  Look for 110 before the end of the month.  The dollar broke today, despite the bull dollar news, indicating some serious anti-dollar action here.  I remain a mortgage the farm bull unless we break 80.  The Canadian surged, and held up above 80, suggesting a break below that would be a momentous move and cause for serious shorting.  The yen is a short with stops above 9650.

Grains
Grain action slowed this week, as profit taking matched short covering and the market paused ahead of the next big move.  Beans seem poised to retrace, but a final rally up to around 6.50 is not out of the question.  Moreover, news of rust findings in Florida of all places might start some rust based market hysteria.  I recommend buying puts or exiting longs and being flat - avoid short futures or naked short calls due to potential volatility exposure over the next month.  Prices regained appropriate pre-growing season premium across the board in grains, and I would not be a buyer for at least another month or two (unless of course the expected retracement occurs).

Meats
Cattle surged on news of a Federal judge ordering a temporary injunction on the proposed lifting of the Canadian Beef Ban set for March 7th.  Congress jumped into the mix too.  A lot of inside politics going on here.  To me it's all irrelevant because only a handful of the big cattle exporters in Canada were equipped to meet the regulatory requirements as of March 7th, so most of the cattle would be brought in piecemeal over the next several months anyway.  I continue to maintain a heavy bear bias and see this week's rally as a blip on the radar.  Hogs and bellies remain bearish.

Metals
Gold traded sideways within the intermediate term mid-range.  Silver showed some more weakness, but both appear to look bullish after today's dollar collapse.  However, I am a big time metals bear at these prices.  Gold and silver are not heading to new highs without a big retracement first.  Look for a breakdown in gold and silver in the next two to four weeks.  Palladium is making a move - jump on that bandwagon.

Softs
Continued congestion in coffee near the highs is making this bull lighten his load ahead of what should be some explosive action.  Shift coffee plays to defined risk options, as a 1000 point day (in either direction) seems to me to be just around the corner.  I am neutral coffee with a resumed bullish outlook on a break and close above 130.  Cocoa pushed higher this week as peace negotiations took a turn for the worse in the Ivory Coast.  I recommend buying puts as cocoa futures sit between 1750-1800.  Cotton continues to pull the bulls in, but be forewarned - things are not as they appear in this market.  OJ surged as a short squeeze and market bullishness broke us out to fresh highs.  I recommend scaling out of about 50% of any long plays in OJ as the potential for a quick retracement is here, but the underlying technicals remain bullish.  Sugar broke trend line support and volatility to the downside is expected next week.  Lumber volatility makes it too dangerous to play…for now.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.