Good morning! While the market didn't have a lot of technical patterns throughout the day on Monday, there were some very strong ones. Good earnings from the likes of MRK and AXP helped the Dow Jones Ind. Ave. ($DJX) put in its best day since last April. Also in the news was the nomination of Ben Bernake to replace Alan Greenspan as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve when Greenspan retires on Jan. 31st.
The morning began with a decent upside gap. This took the indices into price resistance from Friday afternoon highs. The market rounded off at these levels for the first hour of the day, pulling back off them around 10:30 ET with a 2T reversal pattern in the Dow and SP500 and a 2 minute Head & Shoulders/Avalanche on the weaker NASDAQ intraday. While the NASDAQ managed to fill its gap and then some, both the Dow and SP500 held their 15 minute 20 sma and all three indices bounced off that support with the 10:45 ET reversal period.
The remainder of the day saw very little for pullbacks. While choppy, the market climbed steadily higher over noon. The NASDAQ rested at its morning highs, but broke out of them at 12:30 ET, triggering the 60 minute breakout that we were watching heading into the day. Since this was the third upside move on the 2-5 minute charts, however, the base broke by only a slight amount before the market fell into a much longer intraday range that continued until the indices hit their 15 minute 20 sma support at the 15:00 ET reversal period. At that point they pulled back to the upper end of the narrow range, based into the 5 minute 20 sma support, and then broke strongly to the upside going into the last half hour of the day.
The rally into the close, while strong, was only a fraction of the mid-day move from the 10:45 ET lows. Since the pace was picking up at the end of the day, I would expect the market to form a larger than equal move as compared to that earlier upside move. This leaves the market more bullish heading into Tuesday morning. Some things to watch for will be 10:00 Consumer Confidence and Homes Sales numbers as well as a continuation of earnings.
Economic Reports and Events
Oct 25: Consumer Confidence for Oct (10:00 am), Existing Home Sales for Sep (10:00 am)
Oct 26: Crude Inventories 10/21 (10:30 am)
Oct 27: Durable Orders for Sep (8:30 am), Initial Claims 10/22 (8:30 am), Help-Wanted Index for Sep (10:00 am), New Home Sales for Sep (10:00 am)
Oct 28: Chain Deflator-Adv for Q3 (8:30 am), Employment Cost Index for Q3 (8:30 am), GDP-Adv for Q3 (8:30 am), Mich Sentiment-Rev for Oct (9:45 am)
Oct 31: Personal Income for Sep (8:30 am), Personal Spending for Sep (8:30 am), Chicago PMI for Oct (10:00 am)
Nov 01: Construction Spending for Sep (10:00 am), ISM Index for Oct (10:00 am), Auto Sales for Oct (12:00 am), Truck Sales for Oct (12:00 am), FOMC policy announcement (2:15 pm)
Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Oct 25: ABGX (A), ACE (A), AKS (?), AKAM (A), AW (A), AMX (A), AMTD (B), AJG (A), AT,L (?), AVB (A), BLS (B), BXP (A), BP (02:00 am ET), BNI (B), CHRW (A), CTX (A), CME (B), CHIR (4:45 pm ET), CB (A), COH (?), CA (?), CVH (B), DST (A), DD (B), ESV (?), FFIV (?), FLEX (?), FBR (A), GNW (A), HAL (B), HCA (B), N (?), INSP (A), IP (B), ISSX (A), ISRG (?), KIM (B), LAB (B), LCAV (B), LXK (B), LMT (B), MDG (A), MTH (?), MUR (A), NCI (08:35 am ET), PNR (?), PKI (A), PPP (?), RFMD (?), SEPR (B), SHW (?), SIMG (A), SSTI (A), SIRF (A), SO (B), STM (A), TLAB (B), TIN (B), JOE (B), TMO (A), TUP (B), UPL (A), X (?), WAT (?), WBSN (A)
Oct 26: AGR (B), APD (?), ATI (B), MDRX (A), AHC (?), AHM (?), APCC (A), AMKR (A), APPB (A), AMCC (A), ARBA (A), ARRS (A), ADP (B), AVX (B), BIDU (A), BLDP (B), BEAV (B), BIIB (A), BOW (B), CDN (A), ELY (A), CAH (B), COGT (A), CYH (A), COP (B), GLW (A), CSX (?), DCX (?), DO (?), DBD (B), DRIV (A), DRE (A), ECA (?), EPD (?), ERES (A), ESRX (A), EXTR (A), GRMN (B), GMR (A), GRP (B), GW (A), HRS (A), IDXC (B), JNS (B), JNY (B), KMG (?), KOMG (A), LLL (B), LEA (B), LPNT (A), LPX (?), LSI (A), LU (?), MXO (A), WFR (?), MGM (B), MCRL (A), MNST (B), NTGR (A), NEM (?), NSC (?), OMX (?), OPWV (?*), PFCB (1:00 pm ET), PDG (A), PLUG (B), PX (B), PHM (A), RAI (B), R (B), SEE (?), SII (B), SSCC (B), S (B), HOT (B), TROW (B), TASR (B), TMX (A), BA (B), EL (B), FAF (B), NDAQ (A), TRID (A), UMC (?), VAR (A), VRTX (A), WC (A), WLP (06:00 am ET), WWY (?), XEL (B), YCC (B), ZMH (A)
Oct 27: AET (B), AAI (B), ALA (?), AEE (B), AXL (B), AMMD (A), ANDW (?), AU (?), APA (B), ABI (B), AZN (?), AN (B), AVID (A), AVT (?), BLL (B), ABX (A), BEBE (?), BDK (B), BG (B), BR (A), CTL (B), CRDN (B), CIN (B), CCE (B), CTV (A), CPWR (A), CNXT (A), CFC (B), ELN (B), ELX (?), XOM (?), BEN (?), FMT (B), GGC (A), GP (B), GSK (07:00 am ET), GR (B), HC (?), HLT (B), IMCL (B), IM (A), IRF (A), IVGN (A), ITT (?), KLAC (A), LEXR /A(, LIZ (?), LTR /B(M LYO (B), MRO (?), MEE (A), MXIM (A), MFE (A), MWV (B), MET (A), MSFT (?), MCEL (?), MLNM (?), NCR (B), NXL (?), NWL (B), NFX (B), NXTP (B), NXG (A), OLN (A), PHS (B), PRX (B), PTEN (B), PENN (07:00 am ET), PD (B), PGN (B), QLTI (B), STR (A), RTN (B), RNWK (?), RSAS (A), SAPE (A), SPG (A), SKM (05:00 am ET), SNE (B), SWN (A), STA (B), SU (B), TKLC (A), TNE (B), TRA (B), DOW (B), THQI (A), TDW (B), TSM (08:00 am ET), UNP (?), UHS (A), UST (B), VSEA (A), VZ (?), VTSS (A), VMC (A), WLT (?), WMI (B), WFT (B), WEN (?), WDC (A), YELL (A), ZHNE (A)
Oct 27: AET (B), AAI (B), ALA (?), AEE (B), AXL (B), AMMD (A), ANDW (?), AU (?), APA (B), ABI (B), AZN (?), AN (B), AVID (A), AVT (?), BLL (B), ABX (A), BEBE (?), BDK (B), BG (B), BR (A), CTL (B), CRDN (B), CIN (B), CCE (B), CTV (A), CPWR (A), CNXT (A), CFC (B), ELN (B), ELX (?), XOM (?), BEN (?), FMT (B), GGC (A), GP (B), GSK (07:00 am ET), GR (B), HC (?), HLT (B), IMCL (B), IM (A), IRF (A), IVGN (A), ITT (?), KLAC (A), LEXR /A(, LIZ (?), LTR /B(M LYO (B), MRO (?), MEE (A), MXIM (A), MFE (A), MWV (B), MET (A), MSFT (?), MCEL (?), MLNM (?), NCR (B), NXL (?), NWL (B), NFX (B), NXTP (B), NXG (A), OLN (A), PHS (B), PRX (B), PTEN (B), PENN (07:00 am ET), PD (B), PGN (B), QLTI (B), STR (A), RTN (B), RNWK (?), RSAS (A), SAPE (A), SPG (A), SKM (05:00 am ET), SNE (B), SWN (A), STA (B), SU (B), TKLC (A), TNE (B), TRA (B), DOW (B), THQI (A), TDW (B), TSM (08:00 am ET), UNP (?), UHS (A), UST (B), VSEA (A), VZ (?), VTSS (A), VMC (A), WLT (?), WMI (B), WFT (B), WEN (?), WDC (A), YELL (A), ZHNE (A)
Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.