1. U.K. CBI October Industrial Trends Survey
2. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
3. Japanese Retail Trade

UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey (OCT) (10:00 GMT, 6:00 EDT)
Consensus: --
Previous: -27

Outlook: October data should show another slight improvement, but will not paint a rosy picture of UK's struggling manufacturing sector. Export orders continue to cause concern for manufacturers. Meanwhile, the purchasing manager's survey suggests that manufacturing is seeing a recovery in demand and output with many UK manufacturing bulls expecting this optimism to carry over to the CBI's report. Cost reduction led by a slight decline in oil prices should help the cause, however many see continued weakness in UK manufacturing as global demand shifts. With demand improving slightly and some relief in costs, manufacturers' profit margins will probably remain low for now with room for improvements in the next few quarters.

Previous: September's total order book, though remaining at a weak level, improved marginally from -29 to -27. Export orders, which had previously been supportive of UK industry, declined precipitously to their lowest levels since January with an order book balance of -25. Together with higher oil and transportation costs, a double blow was dealt to the manufacturing sector. Oil prices averaged $65 a barrel for the month, 58 percent higher than last year. A September survey of manufacturers suggests four out of ten manufacturers found total order books below normal.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision (20:00 GMT, 16:00 EDT)
Consensus: 7.00%
Previous: 6.75%

Outlook: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will likely increase rates to 7.00 percent from 6.75 percent, where they have been since March. According to a Bloomberg survey of fourteen analysts, thirteen see a rate increase and one predicts the RBNZ will leave rates unchanged. New Zealand's overnight cash rates remain the highest of any nation with a top credit rating from Moody's, and the foreseen move would further increase this differential. Although the rate already seems rather high, there is a good deal of fundamental support for the hike. Second quarter unemployment data remained around record lows checking in at 3.7 percent, and inflation is expected to reach an oil-induced 3.9 percent - well above the one to three percent inflation target - in the first quarter of next year. To top it all off, there was a surprise upward revision to GDP growth estimates from 0.7 to 1.1 percent (QoQ) late last month. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard even warned of an unsustainable “spending binge”, which monetary authorities are apparently trying to prevent with a quarter point rate hike.

Previous: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rate untouched at 6.75%, however Governor Alan Bollard took a more hawkish tone stating, “Further policy tightening may still prove necessary. Certainly, there remains no prospect of a cut in the foreseeable future.” There have been seven rate increases since January 2004 in an effort to curb spending and reduce inflation. Even with these measures, international developments have caused oil prices to soar 20 percent in the third quarter while house prices climbed 14.7 percent, underpinning the inflationary threat New Zealand faces. The point of contention in the rate debate came from the fact that economic growth was projected to slow to 2.4 percent this year from 4.8 percent last year, showing the trade-off that the central bank faces.

Japanese Retail Trade (SEP P) (23:50 GMT, 19:50 EDT)
Consensus: 0.2% (MoM SA); 1.5% (YoY)
Previous: 1.5% (MoM SA); 1.5% (YoY)

Outlook: Many economists see Japanese retail sales continuing to accelerate, however most do not see gains to be as substantial as the first half of this year. Japanese retail trade likely increased at a seasonally adjusted pace of 0.2 percent in September, short of August's gains but suggestive of an improving economy. The latest monthly labor survey revealed that employment continued to grow at a healthy pace while wages declined slightly after four consecutive months which produced increases from the previous year. With the labor market remaining strong and consumer prices tame, the environment is a consumer-friendly one. While it is unlikely that we see a repeat of the retail trade growth rates seen earlier this year, September's figures should show that retail trade at least held steady during the recently initiated recovery.

Previous: Retail sales rose 1.5 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis from July. The country had just seen four consecutive months where wages were higher than in the same month of the preceding year. Meanwhile, unemployment was at multi-year lows checking in at 4.3 percent. Consumer prices excluding food actually fell 0.1 percent from the previous year in August despite labor market strength, creating a very favorable environment for consumer spending.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.