Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- US Dollar rallies substantially on S&P 500 losses
- Forex Options and Futures continue to call for US Dollar bottom
- US Dollar to remain volatile on Rate Decisions and NFP’s

The US Dollar finally showed signs of life through the past week of trading, setting a substantial low against the Euro and other key forex counterparts. An early-week tumble in the US S&P 500 and other financial risk sentiment barometers provided the spark for the dollar turnaround. Given extremely one-sided Dollar-bearish sentiment, it was little surprise to see the previously downtrodden currency continue mostly higher through Friday’s close. We have long argued that the Greenback was likely to establish a substantial low on overstretched market positioning. Of course, it is never profitable to be early on calls for major counter-trend moves. Yet the substantive week-long turnaround gives us reason to believe that the US Dollar has set a major low and will likely continue higher through end-of-year trading.

A substantial week of economic event risk promises no shortage of excitement in the days ahead. Forex options market volatility expectations are now at their highest since early July ahead of highly-anticipated central bank decisions and the infamous US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Recent US Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product figures suggest that the world’s largest economy is in much better shape than previously believed, and consensus forecasts are calling for relatively steady improvements across key economic indicators. Yet bullish expectations leave substantial room for disappointment, and the recent spike in the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) suggests traders will dump risky assets at the first sign of trouble.

Early-week ISM Manufacturing and Pending Home Sales could spark further volatility across key asset classes, but the true fireworks will likely wait until the mid-week’s ISM Non-Manufacturing and US Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision results. Traders are likely to pay especially close attention to the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls result. The sub-index has seen fairly steady improvements after setting record-lows through 2008, but the below-50 reading shows that employment will likely continue to contract through the near future. Surprises in either direction will likely set the tone for the afternoon’s FOMC decision, while Friday’s NFPs will wrap up the week of substantive economic event risk.

Global financial markets are expecting big price moves in the week ahead, and traders should be careful of substantial day-to-day volatility across US Dollar pairs. We have made no secret of our calls for further US Dollar strength, but prices never move in a straight line. Suffice it to say, we expect our convictions will be put to the test in what promises to be an exciting week of forex market price action.

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