Energies

It looks like Hurricane Ida is going to come and go without a major incident, but anytime there is a November hurricane it reminds traders the season runs until the end of the month. I expect the inventory trend to create some build from mid-November through the end of the year. Remember the producers in this sector trail the market by a few months, and it was not to long ago that we were near some record inventory levels, so to me this is the lagging cycle effect and will likely lead to a strong supply spike during a period of declining global demand - a recipe for disaster that could send energy prices spiraling down.

Financials

The stock market is at a critical stage - a little support pushes the market into a mid-range. Do we test 1100? If we do expect a choppy market through year end, but the gut says we selloff below 1080 and really pressure the market down to 990 in a hurry. Bonds have developed a bearish technical trend but needs to close below 117 on the 30 year before I turn bearish. The dollar continues to be a strong buy as I believe:

The dollar will hit 86 before it breaks below 70 or I will stop writing the Weekend Commodities Review... forever.

The yen remains a strong buy on dips as that country is going to walk away from decades of currency controls making me think there could be an epic bull play in this wild west currency. The Canadian dollar may have set a double bottom above 92 but I don't buy it and think we push to 87 in short order.

Grains

The WASDE and crop report on Tuesday is important to the grain trend, but in the end the dollar is going to run higher and limit global demand for grains, thus pushing prices much lower. So a little bounce off this report might just be a great entry into a long term short position in beans and corn, with wheat remaining the value buy in this sector.

Meats

Cattle continues to offer a bear play as we break a long term congestion pattern to the downside. Buy the dip in hogs as this breakout bull market has more upside potential, but waiting for a dip of about 4 points is recommended from current levels.

Metals

The big news last week was the IMF's sale of about half the gold it was trying to unload to India - call it a short term currency advantage that got that gold sold. China seems like a #2 for the rest of it but I wouldn't assume it will be that easy. $1100 gold is outrageous in a choppy currency market and strong stock market and these markets are heavily influenced right now - but what's new? Gold and silver are running away with a short squeeze and technical breakout, and in my opinion are doomed for an epic collapse. However missing this move waiting for that collapse is certainly a missed opportunity and a bit amateur performance for me, but I have been off in this sector admittedly for quite some time. To me the dollar is the ultimate decider of the metals trend and I just cannot buy into this rally with my convictions on a U.S. dollar rally around the corner. Buy puts across the board but avoid short call exposure here.

Softs

Columbia may have a poor coffee crop due to late flowering affecting yield and total production. Vietnam is going to tell a very ugly story of supply problems following typhoon rain and flooding damage in the key growing region. The bottom line is coffee is fundamentally bullish but technically range bound with dollar problems around the corner. I am short term bearish with a technical break through 150 turning me bullish in a hurry. Cocoa remains a short with a lack of real fundamental pressure in the Ivory Coast - strike this and election that - its always the same over there and the crop still gets pumped out. Cotton is a buy on dips, and a call buying opportunity exists heading into the WASDE on Tuesday. OJ is a buy on dips and sugar appears to be overly congested ahead of a breakout buy. My interest in lumber is once again making me a bull with long term calls in a very illiquid market.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.