Fundamental Forecast for Swiss Franc: Neutral

- Swiss Investor Confidence Weakens in November
- Producer & Import Prices Unexpectedly Contract in October

The Swiss Franc ended the week higher against the U.S. Dollar and the Euro, with the USD/CHF continuing to push toward parity as the pair slipped to a low of 1.0034, just 2pips shy of the yearly low at 1.0032, and low-yielding currency is likely to remain range-bound over the following week as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. SNB member Thomas Jordan reaffirmed the central bank’s policy stance during a speech earlier this week and said that the board has reached its goals and does not see any reason to shift policy as it aims “to support an economic recovery during a difficult phase without low rates and an elevated liquidity creating an inadequate evolution.”

In addition, Mr. Jordan continued to voice his concern about the marked appreciation in the Swiss franc, stating that “the exchange rate has quite an important impact” on the economy, and went onto say that the central bank’s efforts to stem the rise against the euro were largely “successful.” Moreover, the board-member said that central bank will look to normalize policy over the medium-term as conditions improve, but noted that the outlook for the global economy remains highly uncertain and pledged to support the economic recovery in the short run. At the same time, SNB Governor Jean-Pierre Roth expects to see weaker growth following the crisis, and said that the slump in employment remains a concern as growth prospects remain subdued. As policy makers maintain a cautious outlook for the region and vow to prevent a further appreciation in the exchange rate, the low-yielding currency may continue to trend sideways as investors weigh the prospects for another SNB intervention. Nevertheless, the economic docket for the following week could stoke increased volatility in the Swiss franc cross rates as the Swiss National Bank holds an improved outlook for growth and forecasts GDP to expand at an annual rate of 0.4% in 2010 amid an initial forecast for a 0.4% contraction.

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