Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bearish

- Japanese Yen looks increasingly vulnerable as risk appetite grows
- Yen nonetheless outperforms against British Pound
- Forex crowds pointed to potential for USDJPY losses

Continued S&P 500 rallies made the safe-haven Japanese Yen the second-worst performing G10 currency to finish the week’s trade, finishing higher only against the similarly-downtrodden US Dollar. All major world equity indices finished anywhere from 2-3 percent above their weekly open except for the Japanese Nikkei 225 -- raising serious doubts on investor demand for Japanese financial asset classes and reflecting poorly on the domestic currency. Indeed, the fundamental arguments for Japanese Yen strengths are becoming increasingly scarce -- especially through times of healthy financial market risk appetite.

Week in and week out, we have repeated that financial market risk sentiment and the trajectory of the S&P 500 would be the major determinant of USDJPY price action. Yet the US Dollar has actually taken top-billing as carry trade funding currency as it now carries the lowest overnight yield of any major world currency. The truly substantive shift in interest rates has meant that the USDJPY’s correlation to risky assets has fallen considerably from its heights, and it is admittedly unclear whether the USDJPY would decline on S&P 500 tumbles. In fact, the rolling correlation between the US Dollar Index and S&P is very near record-highs—emphasizing the Dollar’s sensitivity to risk sentiment.

The Japanese Yen may subsequently struggle to find a bid against the US Dollar as it trades near substantive highs. The confusing US Dollar/Japanese Yen links to risk sentiment likely explain low volatility expectations for the currency pair, and it seems traders are pricing in range trading for the often fast-moving USDJPY. This stands in fairly stark contrast to volatility expectations for other major currencies—theoretically providing safe haven for range traders and scalpers in the week ahead.

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