Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish

- Japan’s Economy Expanded Most in Over Two Years in Q3
- BOJ Keeps Rates Unchanged, Conflict with MOF Continues

The Japanese Yen outperformed last week as capital retreated from stocks, commodities and FX carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency. A bland domestic economic calendar and thin liquidity conditions around the Thanksgiving holiday in the US promise more risk-driven volatility ahead.

Although scheduled event risk is ample on next week’s Japanese data docket, the market-moving potential of upcoming releases is limited at best. The Bank of Japan’s monthly report is unlikely to yield much more insight than traders already derived from the most recent interest rate decision. An up-tick in the jobless rate after three consecutive months of moderation coupled with parallel declines in retail trade and household spending will reflect now-familiar concerns about the ebbing effects of fiscal stimulus and should come as no surprise after the central bank’s constant admonitions about a weak consumption outlook. Likewise, another negative yearly consumer price index reading should not be shocking after both monetary and fiscal authorities acknowledged the economy had firmly retreated back into deflationary territory last week, with the BOJ adding that rising oil prices will offer help in that regard in the months to come.

The trajectory of risky assets seems likely to be a far more potent catalyst for price action. Although the earnings season is winding down, the US calendar offers a hefty dollop of market-moving releases that could shake things up on Wall St and consequently translate into Yen volatility. Most notably, the second revision of US third-quarter GDP is expected to be trimmed to 2.9% from the 3.5% initially reported, with at least some of the reduction accounted for by a lower personal consumption levels. Consumer confidence, new home sales, and durable goods orders data is also on tap. Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday adds another dimension to the potential for sharp swings in prices, with any moves heading into the end of the trading week likely to be amplified by thin liquidity conditions and so make the realization of a break past key support and resistance levels that much more likely. This is especially important for USDJPY, where prices are flirting with trend-defining double bottom support in the in the 87.09-88.23 area.

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