The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly |
By Lawrence G. McMillan |
Published
12/18/2009
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Options
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Unrated
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The McMillan Options Strategist Weekly
If you're not frustrated, you're not paying attention. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX), and the broad market in general, maddeningly refuse to break out on the upside.
From a longer-term point of view, the trend line that connects the March, July, and October lows is now at about 1090. That means that if the support at 1080 is violated on the downside, that not only will the lower end of the short-term trading range have given way, but the longer-term trend line will also have been significantly penetrated.
The equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals, and have been for about a week. Market breadth indicators rolled over to sell signals during today's slide.
Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) remain subdued. They had retreated to near yearly lows as recently as yesterday. Declining volatility is bullish for the general market. Today, they shot higher as the market declined, but they are still in downtrends at this time.
In summary, $SPX remains within the 1080-1110 trading range. A breakout will likely signal the return of a more volatile market.
Lawrence G. McMillan is the author of two best selling books on options, including Options as a Strategic Investment, recognized as essential resources for any serious option trader's library.
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