Let's have a look at the big picture chart structure of dollar versus yen, which argues for an approaching upmove in the US dollar. Purely from an intermediate-term technical perspective, the pattern carved out by the USD/JPY since early 2007 into late 2009 has the right look of a completed downmove in the USD/JPY. In fact, twice during 2009, in January and again in November, the USD/JPY found key support and reversed from 87.14 and 84.82, respectively, which has left behind a potentially major double bottom.

To trigger initial confirmation of the establishment of a weekly double bottom, the USD/JPY must climb and sustain above 93.80. My near- and medium-term work argue strongly that the US dollar is bottoming against the yen – in other words, the yen is about to begin a downside acceleration phase. If my work is accurate, then I want to be short the yen against the US dollar – via the UltraShort Yen ProShares ETF (YCS).

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.