If my work in spot gold is accurate, then the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has unfinished business on the downside that will break the December-January lows at 105.31 and 106.01, on the way to 103.00-100.00 to complete the larger correction off of the December 3 high at 119.54.

For such a new downleg to emerge, my suspicion is that gold weakness will be a function of a sharp surge in the dollar. The question is what will trigger a flight to dollars. Global stock market weakness? European economic and/or "union' disintegration? Or continued fears of a contraction in China?

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.