The rally in the PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) since last Friday’s low at 42.63 has recovered about 20% of the entire down-move off of the January 11 high at 46.80, which contrasts to a recovery rally of about 35% in the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (SPY).

Whereas the QQQQ led the charge on the upside in last year’s powerful, relentless multi-month advance, so far during 2010 they have led on the downside and have underperformed during the current upmove. Let’s notice that the QQQQ are approaching a test of the January resistance line, now at 43.70. The SPY hurdled its equivalent down trendline yesterday afternoon at 108.90 (the SPY is now at 110.06).

It will be interested to see if the QQQQ have the right stuff to hurdle, sustain and accelerate to the upside from the trendline. If not, then let’s be prepared for sellers to re-emerge in the tech sector with a vengeance. In any case, my optimal target window for this rally in the QQQQ is 44.00-44.25 prior to my expectation of a downside reversal.

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.