1. Australian Trade Balance
2. Swiss Consumer Price Index
3. ECB Rate Announcement
4. U.S. Factory Orders
5. U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing

Australian Trade Balance (SEP) (00:30GMT; 19:30EST)
Consensus:    -1500M
Previous:       -1640M

Outlook:  The balance of goods and services bought and sold between Australia and the rest of the globe's economies is expected to have moved slightly in Australia's favor over the month of September.  Economists expect the deficit to have narrowed to A$1.5 billion over the period as exports of metals and other non-rural goods received a boost.  Over the month of September prices of iron ore, gold and copper made relative highs.  Demand for these products continues to back these rises in prices as developing countries like India and China see their economies expand at ever greater rates.  Economic growth in China, Australia's second largest trading partner behind Japan, is expected to exceed 8.0 percent for 2005 and Australian manufacturers will a direct benefactor.  Limiting any sizable improvement in the deficit however will likely be record prices for energy products over the period.  The price of crude oil rose to $70.85 in the final days of August and remained above $60 for the whole of September.  Realizing a balance moving towards a surplus would put the economy on the path expected by Central bank Governor Ian Macfarlene.  Macfarlane has forecasted a recovery in exports that would pick up the slack in growth over the months left by a decline in housing a consumer spending

Previous:  Australia's trade deficit unexpectedly swelled to a five month high A$1.64 billion in August, as declines in exports of rural goods outpace a lesser drop in imports.  Imports over the month of September responded to curtailed demand from Australian consumers as more of their disposable income was diverted to energy bills and increasing prices at the gas pump.  Domestic purchases of foreign goods were paced lower by a 3 percent decline in intermediate goods, which include fuel.  A similar reduction in the consumption of capital goods and consumer goods, both by one percent, pulled the overall read in imports down to A$16.34 billion.  Stifling this otherwise positive shift the trade of goods and services was a concurrent three percent drop in exports to A$14.7 billion.  Shipments of farm products, as well as services and non-rural goods staved off any positive turn in the economies 43-month run of consecutive deficits.  Oversea sales of wool and wheat products provided the biggest drain on the measure.   Australia is the world's largest producer and exporter of wool, and consequently the rural-good fell 14 percent over the month as both demand and prices for the good shrivel.  The only factor keeping the measure of trade from moving any farther out of line was increased demand from its second largest trade partner, China.  Purchases of Australian goods in China rose to a two month A$2.78 billion at the end of August compared to A$1.82 billion as the behemoth's economy continues to expand.

Swiss Consumer Price Index (MoM) (OCT) (06:45 GMT, 01:45 EST)
Consensus:     N/A
Previous:        0.4%

Outlook: Inflation in Switzerland is expected to maintain its expansionary pace in October.  The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) is estimated to have increased at a rate of 0.6 percent for the month of October, after growing 0.4 percent in September.  If the actual figure comes in line with this consensus, it will mark the fastest rate of inflation the country has seen in six months.  Much of the increase in price growth will result from steeper energy prices, as volatility in the core rate of inflation is expected to be minimal.  Nonetheless, the dramatic increase in energy prices is likely to contribute to higher core inflation on the year, as companies slowly disseminate higher bills due to pricey raw materials onto consumers.  This pass through raises a concern for the growing Swiss economy.  Possibly offsetting some of the detrimental effects of inflation has been the depreciation of the Swiss Frank.  The Frank has eased nearly 16 percent this year against the benchmark U.S. dollar, effectively bolstering foreign demand for Swiss goods and spurring the considerable economic growth.  In the face of increasing inflation rates, this growth may prompt the Swiss National Bank to adjust interest rates, which have been at 0.75 percent for over a year. 

Previous: In September, the rate of inflation in Switzerland as measured by the CPI accelerated to its fastest pace in five months, registering at 0.4 percent.  As expected, the recent surge in energy prices was the principal component driving the rapid pace of inflation.  Highlighting the effects volatile energy products have had was the price of heating oil which subsequently rose 17 percent in Switzerland; while consequently core inflation remained relatively tame.  The core index, which excludes energy, food, tobacco, fuel, and seasonal products, reported no change on the month.  Slight increases in the cost of transportation and education were offset by depreciation in communications and household goods.  Similarly, analysis of inflation trends on an annual basis reveal significant price increases in transportation and a decrease in communications goods since September of last year.

European Central Bank Rate Announcement (12:45 GMT, 07:45 EST)
Consensus:     2.0%
Previous:        2.0%

Outlook: The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to make an announcement regarding interest rates on November 3rd.  It is expected that the ECB will maintain its benchmark lending rate of 2.00 percent, the lowest interest rate level since 1946.  In an attempt to encourage economic growth, the Bank has left this rate unchanged since June 2003.  However, recent trends in inflation and economic expansion in the Euro-zone suggest that a rate hike is becoming increasingly imminent, with many economists predicting the adjustment as early as the first quarter of 2006.  This year, inflation in the Euro-zone is predicted to register 2.2 percent, higher than the ECB's target of 2.0 percent for the sixth straight year.  Using labor data as a guide, this inflation is expected to continue.  Unit labor costs, which juxtapose wages against productivity, have been on the rise over the year, indicating workers are being paid more for the same levels of productionâ€"evidence of continued inflation.  Furthermore, the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI has reached a 13-month high.  Add this to a recent increase in orders and a drop in inventories and backlogs, and the European economy is set to pick up steam in coming months.  Rising inflation coupled with economic expansion poses concern for the ECB.  To counterbalance these trends, the Bank is expected to take on a tightening strategy in 2006.  Interest rates are likely to stay at 2.00 percent for the remainder of this year, however, as the ECB stays on the side of caution and waits until certain of economic recovery before it begins it tightening policy. 

U.S. Factory Orders (SEP) (15:00 GMT, 10:00 EST)
Consensus:     -1.0%
Previous:        2.5%

Outlook: Despite original expectations of heavy orders from recovery efforts in the Gulf Coast, expectations now hold for a drop in factory orders for September.  Supporting this expectation was the larger than predicted decline in US durable goods orders, which account for 55 percent of all factory orders, over the same period.  Orders fell 2.1 percent in September following a 3.8 percent increase in August.  The majority of this drop is being blamed on a plummet in the number of commercial aircraft orders during the month, however even excluding volatile transportation, orders fell 1 percent.  Factory damage in the storm struck areas as well as the crippled ports in the region, the largest in the United States, likely added to the soft outlook.  Recovery efforts are not generating the level of demand expected when the hurricanes had first hit.  A drop of factory orders in September would follow the zig-zag pattern seen lately as orders were weak in July, strong in August, and due to be weak in September.

Previous: Orders placed at US factories rose more than expected in August by 2.5 percent, after a revised loss of 2.5 percent in July.  This is the third rise in four months.  Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 2.7 percent, the most since March 2004.  This rise showed a continued strengthening in the manufacturing sector pre-Hurricanes Katrina and Rita as managers increase orders to restock depleted inventories.  Over the period, bookings for durable goods rose by 3.4 percent led by demand for commercial aircraft and capital goods.  Affects of the hurricanes were not apparent in this month's data, as much of the damage did not occur and, further more was not tallied, until the end of the month and more fully in September.  Manufacturers and economists alike predicted however that factories orders for companies outside the Gulf Coast area could only rise as recovery begins in September.

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing (Oct) (15:00 GTM; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:    57
Previous:       53.3

Outlook:  The services sector is expected to bounce back in October, for an ISM non-manufacturing read of 57, after the measure fell to its lowest level in 29 months in September.  Business, especially in the gulf area, will continue to improve as managers shift policy to compensate for losses in the Gulf Coast and many shops reopen their doors in the storm's wake.  Demand for goods will be integral to the health of services however, and data is mixed.  Despite significant depreciation in the prices for gasoline and other energy products, consumer confidence continued to sink to a fresh 13 year low.  Sentiment is slow to rebound as consumers await the cold snap of the winter season to foster demand for heating fuel and bring the price of energy products back to record levels.  With confidence slow to return, spending will follow suit and demand for goods and services will be hard pressed to support business.   However, demand from abroad could offset some of the weakness seen at home.  Euro-zone, China, Japan and others economies have weathered the surge in energy prices with growth intact and this will play a role in keeping the U.S. economy afloat.

Previous:  The Institute for Supply Management's measure of financial services, retail trade and other non-manufacturing business tumbled to a read of 53.3 in September from 65 in the previous month as costs of materials and supplies rose to a record following the damage wrecked on the Gulf Coast.  Many businesses in the affected area were either shut down or destroyed leading many managers to respond to the situation by altering employment policies and quarterly revenue forecasts.  Industries like utilities, mobile phones and restaurant franchises were particularly hard hit with infrastructures such as power grids, radio towers and buildings requiring major costs and time to repair.  Subsequently, the ISM's employment component dropped to 54.9 from 59.6 the month before while the new orders gauge fell to 56.6 from 65.8.  Demand for services was another drain on the sector with consumers' confidence diving to a 13-year low and gasoline prices peaked above $3.00 per gallon. 

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.