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Market Corrects Through Trading Range
By Toni Hansen | Published  11/7/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Corrects Through Trading Range

 

Good morning! Friday was a particularly slow day for the market. Lucky for me it was my first day back to trading after getting sick last weekend. Yuck! The morning had some decent opportunities, but they did not last for long. After a fairly active week with a lot of earnings and a nice upside move, by Friday the indices were coming into some strong daily resistance and needed a bit of a break.

 

The day began with a small gap higher. This began to fill almost right away, but the market tried again to move higher out of the 9:45 ET reversal period. Only the NASDAQ was able to show any real strength, however, breaking to new highs on the week while the SP500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. merely retested their opening price levels. This resistance stalled the rally and the SP500 and Dow both formed 2T reversal patterns on the 5 minute charts as a very slightly higher high trapped new bulls.

The market began to fall quickly from that point. It stalled for a few minutes at the 10:15 ET reversal period, but continued into the 10:45 ET one where stronger support hit with the 5 minute 200 sma intraday in the SP500 and Dow. This was also the closure of the prior day's gap in the SP500. These support levels, along with the reversal period, helped the market begin to correct to the morning selloff heading into the mid-day doldrums.

Overall, the correction off morning lows had some strong upside surges, but they would quickly correct back into the congestion. The move was gradual enough that I began to look for shorting opportunities coming out of the 13:00 ET reversal period as the SP500 hit its 15 minute 20 sma and the NASDAQ began to form a 15 minute Head and Shoulders pattern. Unfortunately, the follow through was extremely slow, changing the pace once more going into the 14:00 ET reversal period. The pattern was unable to follow through as a result and the market closed in the middle of its daily range.

With the lack of follow through on my late day bias on Friday, I am a lot more open to possibilities on Monday. The fact that the market held up so well despite a great deal of daily resistance and the looming weekend suggests that the bulls are a lot stronger than I initially suspected going into Friday's resistance. There is not a strong enough buy setup on the daily and 60 minute charts though for me to feel too aggressive. I will likely stick more to news plays this week while the market wrestles the with monthly buy setup it's trying to form versus the weekly resistance it's now hitting at the prior NASDAQ highs. So far though, the monthly charts suggest that we will hold up and have a decent shot at moving higher over the next several months and I am looking at adding a number of new position trades, such as AES and BOBJ.

Economic Reports and Events
Nov. 07: Consumer Credit for Sep (3:00 pm)
Nov. 08: -
Nov. 09: Wholesale Inventories for Sep (10:00 am), Crude Inventories 11/4 (10:30 am)
Nov. 10: Export ex-ag. for Oct. (8:30 am), Import Prices ex-oil for Oct. (8:30 am), Initial Claims 11/05 (8:30 am), Trade Balance for Sep (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment-Prel. for Nov. (9:45 am), Treasury Budget for Oct. (2:00 pm)
Nov. 11: -
Nov. 14: -
Nov. 15: Core PPI for Oct. (8:30 am), NY Empire State Index for Nov. (8:30 am), PPI for Oct. (8:30 am), Retail Sales for Oct. (8:30 am), Retail Sales ex-auto for Oct. (8:30 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Nov. 07: ABP (B), APCS (A), ALO (B), BBD (?), BEV (B), CRK (?), DESC (B), GNTA (?), KFX (A), NTES (7:00 pm ET), NR (?), NU (B), NFI (A), NRG (B), PPC (B), KWK (A), SBAC (A), SRP (?), VPHM (B)
Nov. 08: AL (?), AQNT (B), AVNX (?), CVC (B), CMX (B), CBB (?), CHR (B), CMLS (B), BOOM (B), DYN (B), DISH (?), FSH (A), FOSL (?), GGB (B), GG (A), HL (B), HOMS (A), HRP (B), INPC (A), IDTI (A), IVX (?), IVIL (?), LAMR (B), MAC (B), MDR (A), MCK (A), MRX (A), PIXR (A), PDE (A), SNY (01:00 am ET), SOHU (3:00 pm ET), SONS (A), SGY (A), TS (A), TERN (A), TOL (?), RIG (B), VC (B), WGR (B)
Nov. 09: ALVR (B), DOX (A), BRKS (A), CF (A), CSCO (A), CDE (B), RIO (A), CYPB (?), DT (B), FST (A), HANS (?), IO (A), IIJI (B), IVAN (?), JDSU (A), KG (B), L (?), LGF (A), LOUD (?), MVL (B), TMR (?), MT (?), NVDA (?), SNDA (A), IPG (B), LCC (B), WFMI (A)
Nov. 10: AEG (02:00 am ET), CPST (?), DELL (A), ECR (A), EPL (B), HSP (07:30 am ET), IGT (B), KSS (A), NWS (A), PSUN (A), PBY (?), COL (B), SPC (?), TGT (B), TLWL (07:00 am ET), PGR (?), UBB (?), URBN (B)
Nov. 11: PDA (?)
Nov. 14: A (A), BGO (A), BLI (?), BIZ (?), ERJ (B), LOW (?), TSN (?), WMT (?)
Nov. 15: ANF (A), AEOS (B), ADI (A), ARM (B), BJ (B), CNR (?), DKS (B), HMA (B), HD (B), JCP (?), LZB (A), ROST (B), SPLS (B), TJX (B), VOD (?) 
 
Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at
Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.