"PARIS ON FIRE" screams the headline in The Independent.
Editors will sometimes exaggerate to sell papers. Another paper says, "Stay Out...Paris is Burning!"
It was slow news weekend, we concluded. We were in Paris the whole time; we saw neither smoke, nor flame...more below.
It must have been slow going in the financial world too. This morning, we find little changed from last week. The Dow barely budged on Friday. All is as it was and, in the minds of most people, ever has been. That it has not always been this way...and will not always be this way in the future...is our major theme here at The Daily Reckoning. But it has been this way for so long that it is hard to convince anyone. Who buys an umbrella when the sun shines everyday?
And along comes America's new top weatherman - Ben Bernanke - with the forecast: Sunny again tomorrow...and everyday thereafter.
"Bernanke is sanguine about the outlook for the economy," explains Barron's. "He believes that the United States is in the midst of a strong and sustainable expansion that will be characterized by low inflation, despite the current run-up in fuel, food and housing prices. Regarding housing, he says the increase in prices is the result of strong economic fundamentals like robust growth in jobs and incomes and low mortgage rates. Though housing prices may retreat, he sees no danger to the expansion as long as the prices decline gradually."
And here, we arrest Barron's commentary with a couple questions. What kind of low inflation can be accompanied by double-digit increases in the costs of the three most important items in the average family budget - food, fuel, and housing? Real incomes have been going down for the last two years; is that what you call "robust growth?"
"Home energy costs soar," says the Rocky Mountain News. "Can consumers keep humming?" asks the Orange County Register.
"Increases have made many Americans feel richer and thus save less," continues the Barron's article. "In fact, the saving rate was negative in the second quarter. Bernanke says the U.S. has been able to draw on foreign savings as a substitute because the foreigners lack investment opportunities at home. He has termed this the 'global savings glut' and says it is the reason the U.S. has become a debtor nation. Bernanke sees no reason to panic. He says the situation can be reversed over time if we can grow out exports."
Ben Bernanke knows which way the wind blows in Washington. He holds up a foamy beer and judges both the direction and the velocity. It is a fantasy world...where the debtor figures he is doing the credit a favor by taking his money...where people earn less money but feel richer...and where the most important prices rise, but it is nevertheless a 'low inflation' environment. The gusts howl down 17th street. They swirl up the trash...send the leaves a-fluttering...and slap a wispy economist into the cushiest seat at the Fed. America's central bank needs a chief whose ideas are as loopy as the economy he is meant to run. Bernanke seems like just the man for the job.
Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing. For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.