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A Closer Look at Transportation and Tech Stocks
By Price Headley | Published  11/8/2005 | Stocks | Unrated
A Closer Look at Transportation and Tech Stocks

There are a couple of things I think are worth a closer look today concerning transportation and technology stocks, although none of them are all that deep. So today, we'll just take a brief glance at a handful of technical ideas. If they develop, we may revisit them in greater detail at a later time.

Transportation Stocks

Did anybody else realize that the Dow Transportation Average is at new 52-week highs? I was kind of surprised that the market didn't regard this as a big deal. Yesterday's close at 3979.44 was a new high close, but the intra-day high of 4002.48 is actually the 52-week high. In short, this is a bullish event. It's bullish for the traditional reasons, in that new highs is a sign of sheer strength. But I think what makes this chart even more bullish is knowing where the transportation industry was - psychologically and otherwise - just a few weeks ago.

Remember hurricanes Katrina and Rita? Remember how the nation's oil supply was doomed? Remember how gas was going to go to five bucks a gallon? I remember hearing all of those things......and I remember just how certain a bunch of those experts were about their expectations. I hate to say I told you so, but, I told you so. When the entire nation was completely convinced that things couldn't get any worse (and everyone appeared to be talking about it), I pretty much knew the worst was over. Sure enough, oil has been falling ever since.

What's that got to do with the transportation stocks? Quite a bit. The obvious side effect of higher oil prices is a decrease in demand for shipping. In turn, transportation industry revenues are destined for demise. Why? Since the cost of gas is generally passed through to the ultimate consumer, the consumer was eventually going to choose to not pay higher prices at all.....which means nobody needed anything shipped at all. Now that gas is about 2/3 of the price it was in September, the shipping industry doesn't have to price itself out of the market. Investors sense what this is leading up to, and they're buying these stocks in anticipation of another wave of economic and market strength. I'm inclined to agree.

There's more to that idea though. This is actually a sign of "bigger picture" bullishness. Maybe you've heard of the Dow theory? In a nutshell, the idea is that the Dow Transportation Average should move in tandem with the Dow Industrials. One will lead the other (usually the transports lead), but when both are moving in the same direction, and making similar charts, the bull trend of one index affirms the bullishness of the other. To see the transportation stocks make a major bullish move is at least one important step in confirming a renewed bull trend. The second part of that confirmation will come when (or if) the industrials reach their new 52-week highs. Keep this idea in your back pocket, because the Dow isn't quite there yet.

Technology Stocks

If there's any one sector to use as a barometer for bullishness, it's technology stocks. In the best of bull markets, tech leads (and the financials aren't far behind). So, you want to know the best-performing sector over the last five days? Trick question - it's actually the consumer discretionary stocks, with a gain of 3.8 percent. The tech stocks come in at second, with a gain of 3.2 percent (and the financials are third). That ranking order is the same for the last ten days. Over the last 20 days, the rank is a little different; financials have performed the best, while discretionary stocks are second (and tech is third).

So what's that got to do with anything, since tech isn't leading? Think about it a little more broadly. No matter what, over the last month, the leadership has always been from stocks that spell out bullish confidence. People buy technology, or initiate financial activity, or spend money on things that are wants (as opposed to needs) when confidence is high. Despite what folks may be saying, what they're actually doing with their dollars is quite optimistic.....especially their investing dollars. That bodes well in the bigger picture. As long as the riskier and more aggressive stocks lead the market, look for investors to stay in a bullish mode.

Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.