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Euro Retraces Before Major Retreat
By Jamie Saettele | Published  11/14/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Retraces Before Major Retreat

EUR/JPY - Euro bulls managed to launch a massive counter offensive against the Japanese yen longs as they pushed the cross toward the psychologically important 140.00 handle, a level defended by the 23.6 fib of the 130.68-141.17 EUR rally at 140.20. A move toward 140.20 will most likely see the euro bulls reverse their direction and head back down toward 137.86, a level marked by the September 2 daily high. A further move to the downside will most likely see the cross test the euro defenses around 137.14, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 130.68-141.17 EUR rally, thus breaking below the upward sloping channel's lower boundary. Indicators are diverging with momentum indicator below the zero line and positive MACD sloping downward toward the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

EUR/CHF - Euro longs managed to hold back the advancing Swissie longs as the cross failed to break defenses around 1.5370, a level established by the 50.0 Fib of the 1.5079-1.5661 EUR rally. As the euro longs retrace part of the move made by the Swiss Franc longs, a further move to the upside will most likely see the cross test the Swissie offers around 1.5439, a level marked by the 38.2 Fib of the 1.5079-1.5661 EUR rally. Indicators favor the Swiss Franc longs with both the momentum indicator and negative MACD treading below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the euro longs a chance to retaliate.

EUR/GBP - British pound bulls managed push their way toward the .6726, a 23.6 Fib of the .7106-.6609 GBP rally as the cross remained confined to a downward sloping channel. A further move to the downside coupled with sustained momentum to the downside will most likely see the cross break below the .6700 handle and take on the .6687, a level marked by the June 22 daily high. A further collapse if the single currency defense will most likely see the pound bulls move below the .6650 line and take on the euro's defenses around .6608, a level established by the 2005 Low. Indicators are favoring the pound longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while oversold Stochastic gives the euro longs a chance to retaliate.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.