• UK CPI
• Canadian Manufacturing Shipments
• US Advanced Retail Sales
• US Empire Manufacturing

UK CPI (MoM) (OCT) (09:30 GMT; 4:30 EST)
Consensus:  0.2%
Previous:  0.2%

Outlook: Inflation in the United Kingdom is expected to have repeated 0.2 percent month-over-month growth in October, while the annual read probably ticked lower.  With crude oil prices continuing their softening trend through the month of October, prices for consumer goods will likely follow in its wake * potentially giving the Bank of England more room to lower the benchmark lending rate to jump start the ailing economy.  Annual price growth in September rose to a record 2.5 percent, and economists forecast the measure to fall back to 2.4 percent growth for the falling month.   The central bank has tolerated inflation beyond its 2.0 percent target for three month leading to September's report as economic growth weighed on bank members' votes.  Europe's second largest economy fell far short of the central bank's August estimated 2.1 percent growth in the third quarter, after posting actual results of a more reserved 1.6 percent.  An indicator measuring factory gate that was released today supports the expected slowing in price growth.  Prices of goods leaving U.K. factories fell 0.1 percent in October, for the first decline in four months.  With volatile fuel products keeping input prices lofty, this drop in outgoing prices suggests that producers are also worried about the economy's health leaving them unable to pass on higher costs to British consumers.

Previous: Price growth accelerated to its fastest pace in at least eight years in September, by rising 2.5 percent year-over-year.  Inflation for the period was primarily fostered by an explosion in fuel prices which reached an all-time record $70.85 per barrel days before the month began.   Consequently, many economists have called September's rate of price growth beyond the BoE's target a "knee-jerk reaction," which will settle to relatively normal levels in time.  The nature of this move has not been lost on monetary policy officials as members have unanimously passed on rate changes in the past two meetings in September and October.  Despite the uneasy position officials have been left in with growth and inflation moving in opposing directions, some consolation was found in the indicators posting.  First, the consensus among economists pegged the forecast for the rate of inflation over the period at a more aggressive 2.6 percent.  Another point of comfort came from the relative strength of the economy.  While price growth for the month was a record, it was less than major trade partners including the U.S., while growth remains sturdy compared to regions like the Euro-Zone which is on a path to grow a mere 1.3 percent.

Canadian Manufacturing Shipments (SEP) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:  0.8%
Previous:  3.3%

Outlook: Factory orders for the world's ninth largest economy are expected to have risen another 0.8 percent in September, to push the record of shipments yet again.   The majority of the increase will come from the increased demand and prices for exported Canadian crude oil.  After hitting a historical high of $70.85 per barrel of crude oil, the large increase in price was both motivated and led to the surge in demand as global supplies were brought into doubt.  Petroleum producers were not the only beneficiary for the period.  Auto producers likely also enjoyed a second month of above average shipments as dealer incentives for moving previously sluggish inventories were extended for a second month to ride off of outstanding sales.  Other indicators support a constrained rise for the period.  Raw materials prices dipped for the first month in four in September reducing costs for manufacturers.   Giving more concrete support for the level of manufacturing was the Ivey survey, which showed activity for the sector grew to a two year high in September.  The final say for the level of shipments will likely rest with the strong Canadian currency.  The Canadian dollar rose to a 13-year high against the dollar while advancing to relative highs against most of the other major currencies.   Given such a strong currency, Canadian products were more expensive over the period and orders from abroad will likely be the reflect this.

Previous: Manufacturing shipments grew 3.3 percent in August, three times faster than expectations and setting a record in the process.  Shipments, which account for nearly a third of Canada's economy, grew to C$51.9 billion on the back of energy products as well as vehicles and autos parts.  Shipments of petroleum and coal increased 6.5 percent over the period to a record C$5 billion, most of which went to their neighbor, the United States.  Oil prices were on a steady incline for most of the year leaving one of the economy's largest exports in control of the countries trade balance.  Automobile shipments were also in the forefront after rising 11 percent to C$6.1 billion as companies resumed production after summer breaks and new orders were being placed as dealer incentives inspired potential buyers to make their purchases.  Reading into the indicator also provided optimism for the following month with new orders advancing 3.4 percent to C$52.7 billion for the third gain in previous four months.

Advanced Retail Sales (OCT) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:  -0.7%
Previous:  0.2%

Outlook: Following the strong showing in September, retail sales are expected to have fallen 0.7 percent last month due mainly to a decline in gasoline prices and fewer purchases of cars and trucks. Auto sales over the previous month as buyer incentives ended and uncertainty in fuel prices seized potential consumers.  On the same note, service station receipts fell as a decline in the cost of crude oil translated into falling gasoline prices for the further refined energy product. Sales of food, furniture and other goods probably rose in October and may accelerate as the holiday season approaches, though cold weather may cut incomes with the cost of heating homes eating into consumers' wallets. A recent rebound in consumer confidence suggests retail spending was improving toward the end of October. Prior to this change, consumer sentiment was battered by record energy prices in the aftermath of hurricanes in late August and September which damaged oil output and operations in the U.S. Gulf. 

Previous: Sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.2 percent in September as consumers spent more to fill their gas tanks and bought furniture and electronics for there homes. Rising incomes and home equity are giving consumers the means to overcome record gasoline prices and support spending on goods and services. Versus expectations of a 0.5 percent rise, the data showed that hurricane Katrina dampened spending in the gulf further than many thought. The largest jump in sales came at filling stations which reported increased 4 percent in September following a 4.6 percent rise. With drivers left with few options to reduce demand, they were forced to accept the burden with prices at the pump averaging $2.90 a gallon. Meanwhile sales at electronics and appliance stores rose 0.8 percent while furniture sales increased 1.2 percent. Sales at sporting goods, hobby, book and music outlets decrease at 0.9 percent.

Empire Manufacturing (NOV) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:  15.5
Previous:  12.1

Outlook: The closely watched and leading measure of manufacturing in the New York area is expected to rise to 15.5 this month, putting an end to three consecutive months of softening growth.  The indicator, which gives the first look at manufacturing in the United States, is likely to reflect the effects of lower prices for material costs while orders in the beginning months of the rebuilding effort in storm affected areas stirs to life.  New orders will be chief on managers minds for November.  Demand from U.S. consumers could be in the jeopardy with confidence falling to a two year low last month and reports for consumer spending still a ways off.  Orders from abroad could pick up some of the slack, however, as the economies of many large U.S. trade partners experiencing accelerating growth.  Costs for factories will be another closely watched element of the release.  The prices paid component has risen four straight months to its highest level for the year after gradually falling to a low in July.  With inflation-driving energy prices dropping to levels not seen since July and the component read flattening out, it is likely that prices will drop for the current month.  Future prices are still difficult to predict on the other hand with the coming on of winter and cold weather.   Employment and capital expenditures for the months to come is also likely to suffer.  Hiring will be an issue as manufacturers try to salvage profits.  Capital spending will also shore on profits, but the addition of rising borrowing costs will play a deciding factor.

Previous:  Growth in general business conditions softened for the second month in a row to 12.1 according to the Empire survey, but overall, activity remains expansive after the brief dip into a contractionary environment in May.  With October's report of manufacturing over the month, the psychological factor that weighed on many factory managers who were uncertain of the environment following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, gave way to more concrete expectations based on actual numbers.  The measure of those managers expecting conditions to improve over the next six months fell to 32.6, its lowest level since September of 2001.  Components for the month indicated an improving current picture while optimism for growth over the coming months dimmed.  New orders for the period bounced back to 24.9, following September's sharp decline to 11.6; while expected orders plunged to 37.0 from 45.3.  The measure of prices paid and received has been another important factor for business leaders with the prices of energy and raw materials still difficult to pass onto consumers.  Prices paid rose once again to 60.4 for current conditions, the fourth consecutive rise; while those received edged higher to 15.6.  Looking ahead, the opposite was forecasted.  Business leaders anticipate they will have to pay less over the coming months, leading the indicator to fall to 75.3 while expected received prices also narrowed to 34.4.  With all-important energy prices easing off of their record levels through September and October, factories will be able to make a more focused effort of responding to weakening demand for their goods rather than conserving revenues amid rising costs.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.