There are two salient technical features that jump out of our comparison chart of the Shanghai Composite and S&P 500 daily charts: 1) the powerful July upmove in the Shanghai that has hurdled May-June resistance and now appears to be poised to confront the declining 200-day MA at 2800; and 2) the close proximity of all the relevant moving averages in the SPX clustered in the vicinity of 1094/95.

In my experience, when the MA's are all in and around the same price, a surprisingly big move usually emerges from such a technical confluence. Which way from here?

Since the moving averages are converging in the aftermath of a mostly negative corrective period from April to July, my suspicion is that a thrust in one direction or other argues for a resolution to the upside. That suspicion, coupled with the economic implications associated with the powerful upmove in the China market, bode well for the near-term direction of the SPX.

 

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.