CAD/JPY - Canadian dollar bulls remain confined to a large upward sloping channel that dominated the price action since the middle of June, with Loonioe longs once again trying to push the cross above par. A move to the upside will most likely see the cross establish a double top and with subsequent reversal most likely seeing the yen bulls test the bids around 98.74, a 20-day SMA and the first line of Canadian dollar defenses. A further move to the downside will most likely see the cross head toward 96.52, a level established by 23.6 Fib of the 83.12-100.59 CAD rally, thus breaking below the 50-day SMA and the channel's lower boundary. Indicators remain in favor of the Canadian dollar traders with both MACD and momentum indicator above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
CHF/JPY - Swiss Franc longs quickly recovered the psychologically important 90.00 handle, after they to launched a counterattack against the Japanese yen bulls. A further move by the Swissie bulls will most likely see the cross head toward the 90.68, a level marked by the October 27 daily high, and with sustained momentum seeing the CHF/JPY retest the 2005 High at 91.19. A subsequent reversal will most likely see the Japanese yen longs retaliate in force and push the cross below the psychologically important 90.00 handle and aim for the Swiss Franc bids around 88.94, a level established by the 38.2 Fib of the 84.84-91.48 CHF rally Indicators remain in favor of the Swiss Franc longs with both momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while ADX above 25 at 25.31 is signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
NZD/JPY - New Zealand dollar bulls regained their footing and once again pushed the cross above the psychologically important 80.00 handle and with sustained momentum to the upside will most likely seeing the Kiwi longs test the 2005 high at 82.01. As Japanese yen bulls reestablish their dominance over the price action and push the cross lower, the next move to the downside will most likely see the cross test the New Zealand dollar defenses below 79.35, a 23.6 Fib of the 70.79-81.95 NZD rally, a level further reinforced by the 50-day SMA. A sustained momentum on the part of the yen longs will most likely see the cross test Kiwi's defenses around 77.72, a 38.2 Fib of the 70.79-81.95 NZD rally. Indicators signal maturing trend with ADX above the key 25 mark falling to 35.31, pointing to an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while both momentum and MACD remain above the zero line. While neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.
Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.