1. U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate
2. Euro-zone Consumer Price Index
3. U.S. Consumer Price Index
4. U.S. Net Foreign Security Purchases

U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate (SEP) (9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST)
Consensus: 4.7%
Previous: 4.7%

Outlook: The trends in employment and unemployment should have remained relatively flat during the three-month period of July-September. During the third quarter, manufacturing production rose sharply in the chemicals and man-made fiber industries. This may indicate a turnaround in last period's weakness in manufacturing labor. Also, in the third quarter, services output rose 0.6 percent, inline with growth from previous quarters. This rise is indicative of increased hiring in the services sector. Overall, the labor market is looking to add some jobs as the economy continues to grow. However, on the other hand, people seem to be losing jobs as well with September's claimant count rising by 8,200 to 875,500. This was the largest increase in the claimant count since the 14,000 rise in May, which incidentally, was the one month in the past seven that saw an unemployment rate of 4.8 percent, up from 4.7 percent in every single other month. As a whole, analysts are still expecting the unemployment rate to remain unchanged against August's 4.7 percent as there have been no major labor market shocks or shifts.

Previous: Employment continued to grow to record levels in August, while unemployment remained inline with analyst's expectations. The number of people employed in the June-August period rose to 28.8 million people, up 103,000 from the previous three-month period. Comparatively, unemployment fell to 1.42 million people, down 7,000 from the previous three-month period. Despite the recent fall in the amount of people unemployed, the overall unemployment rate remained at 4.7 percent, its second lowest level in history. Of all the sectors, manufacturing showed the most weakness as the sector lost 99,000 jobs. However, the average number of job vacancies over the three months declined by 15,800 to 625,000, showing strength in the permanency of jobs. Ultimately, these figures are reflective of a job market that showed strength during the summer months.

Euro-zone CPI (YoY) (OCT) (10:00 GMT, 5:00 EST)
Consensus: 2.5%
Previous: 2.6%

Outlook: Consumer prices in the Euro-zone are expected to rise 2.5 percent from October 2004, down from the 2.6 percent seen in September. The drop is due to the easing of oil prices during the month after the US refineries began to recover from Hurricane Katrina. However, core inflation, which excludes the volatile energy sector, is actually expected to rise to 1.4 percent, up from 1.3 percent in September. This could possibly signal second round effects from late summer's sustained high oil prices as businesses are finally starting to pass on their higher costs to consumers. The European Central Bank has remained cautious over the past few months, even as inflation has been over the 2 percent target rate, understanding that oil prices were the main driver for the high increases. However, should this upward change in core prices materialize, it may signal to the bank that a rate hike needs to come sooner rather than later.

Previous: In September, inflation rose 0.1 percent more than expected, by 2.6 percent from a year prior. The jump was due to record oil prices caused by the US hurricanes at the beginning of the month. Excluding oil and other energy prices, consumer prices only rose a tame 1.3 percent. Although the actual CPI number was well above the target 2 percent set by the ECB, core inflation remained in an acceptable region, signaling to the ECB that the numbers are only due to an oil shock. ECB President Trichet, after the release, detailed that the bank would not raise rates merely on the jump caused by oil prices as this only leads to temporarily high inflation and a rate raise could damage the already low and fragile growth of the Euro-zone economy. The bank however will be keeping a close eye out for a rise in wages or core consumer prices which would indicate second round changes resulting from the high energy prices * more permanent and damaging changes.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (OCT) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.0% (MoM); 4.1% (YoY)
Previous: 1.2% (MoM); 4.7% (YoY)

Outlook: Consumer prices in the US are expected to have remained unchanged in October. This estimation is based heavily on the fact that gasoline prices have seen a 25 percent drop from their all-time highs following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. A mild winter this year may relieve the U.S. economy of the rapid inflation it has seen in recent months at the hands of soaring energy prices. Although energy prices may be in check for the time being, it is important to note that core inflation in October is expected to increase to a rate of 0.2 percent, which indicates that energy inflation may have already seeped through to other sectors. Large goods and service providers such as Deere farming equipment, FedEx shipping, and Carnival cruise lines have forecasted significant price increases for the coming year ranging from 4 to 16 percent. While people are experiencing relief at the pump on their energy bills, it is possible that consumers will continue to pay for previously high oil prices through other means. As heavy spending continues, this threat of core inflation is becoming more problematic and is likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain its tight monetary policy.

Previous: In September, consumer prices in the United States increased at a rate of 1.2 percent from the previous month. Economists had expected the rate of price inflation to register at 0.9 percent. Instead, the CPI made its biggest jump since March 1980. Unsurprisingly, the jump in consumer prices resulted largely from a surge in energy prices following the Gulf Coast hurricanes, which crippled many critical refineries and pipelines, limiting the supply of refined crude oil. The limited energy supply forced consumers to pay 12 percent more for gasoline and other energy products. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, came in less than expected as it made a gain of only 0.1 percent. Much of the inflation in the core index resulted from higher prices in the service sector, which accounts for 60 percent of the total index. September's energy-led inflation weighed in on consumer confidence as the University of Michigan's confidence gauge fell to its lowest point in 13 years.

US Net Foreign Security Purchases (SEP) (14:00 GMT, 9:00 EST)
Consensus: $70.0B
Previous: $91.3B

Outlook: The latest Bloomberg median estimate for September's TIC data is $70.0 billion. This figure would, again, be above the average of $66.3 billion in the 12 months up to August. Faith in the US economy has been strong with third quarter GDP growing at a rate of 3.8 percent. Meanwhile, the Fed's overnight lending rate has been rising consecutively in the past twelve FOMC meetings and is forecast to surpass the Bank of England's rate in the next few months. Furthermore, the US fiscal climate is also in good health as the government budget deficit fell to $318.6 billion in fiscal year 2005, ending in September, from$412.8 billion in fiscal year 2004. However, despite these positive figures, keep in mind that the transactions included in this report all occurred in September, at the height of uncertainty after the recent hurricanes. Interestingly enough, less than a month ago, some analysts had been claiming that net foreign security purchases would slow to around $50 billion in the coming months due to the extra risk from the hurricanes' effects and higher energy prices.

Previous: In net foreign purchases of securities came in at a sixteen-month high of $91.3 billion. As the US was on its way to its 10th quarter with growth at or above 3.3 percent, global demand for US-based securities has been growing tremendously. The net value of domestic securities purchases of the past three months have all surpassed the current 12-month average of $80.0 billion. In August, while the balance on purchases of US government agency bonds and equities both dropped, the real star was corporate bonds. The net purchase of these securities raced ahead to $30.2 billion from $24.9 billion. Another large contributor to the month's increase in the headline figure was that the net sale of foreign securities (by US residents to foreigners) rose from -$13.8 billion to $3.5 billion, quite far from the 12-month average of -$13.7. On top of that, there was the fact that the Fed had been the only major central bank to raise their benchmark interest rate in August while the Bank of England had even cut rates. As a result, UK holdings of Treasury securities grew by $14.2 billion in the month to $174.2 billion, another factor in the elevated TIC number.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.