1. Japanese Machine Tool Orders
2. UK Retail Sales
3. Canadian International Securities Transactions
4. US Industrial Production
5. Philadelphia Fed.

Japanese Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (OCT F) (06:00 GMT, 01:00 EST)
Consensus:  N/A
Previous:  0.8% (OCT P); 3.6% (SEP F)

Consensus: The likelihood that machine tool orders in Japan will grow at a faster rate than preliminary October estimates is weak.  Given Japan's recent manufacturing data, growth in the number of machine tool orders is estimated to be as slow as or slower than the preliminary estimate of 0.8 percent, although no official consensus is available.  The meager preliminary estimate came from predictions that growth in domestic machine tool orders would recede slightly and foreign demand for the same tools would fall more dramatically.  In September, Japanese industrial production slowed to 0.4 percent from 1.2 percent the previous month.  Housing and construction starts in the same month fell drastically, resulting in a massive recession of machinery orders at a rate of -10.0 percent.  Given that machinery orders took such a significant hit in September, it is likely that machine tool orders to service or supplement those machines will be minimal in October.    

Previous: Japanese orders for machine tools rose by 3.6 percent in September from a year earlier, revised from an initial reading of 2.2 percent.  The increase was lead by foreign demand as foreign orders for Japanese machine tools expanded by 5.3 percent in comparison to a rise in domestic orders of just 2.2 percent.  In October, economists made a preliminary prediction that the growth in the number of orders would fall to 0.8 percent on the year.  This estimation stemmed from recent declines in Japanese consumer spending, which has suffered at the hands of uncomfortably high energy prices.  Wary of tightening pockets, economists expected industrial production in Japan to decline, reducing the requirement of machines and tools to service those machines. 

UK Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT) (09:30 GMT, 04:30 EST)
Consensus:  0.2%
Previous:  0.7%

Outlook: October is expected to produce a third consecutive month of retail sales growth for the UK. This would be the longest streak seen in the struggling sector since June of last year. While total sales are expected to eek out a monthly growth figure of 0.2 percent, the annual figure will actually move up to 1.5 percent due to a comparably large drop seen in October of last year. Though three consecutive months of growth seems to be a turnaround, industry groups are continuing to paint a gloomy picture. The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey asserted that for the past five months including October, sales have been down from a year ago. Meanwhile the BRC's Retail Sales Monitor cited a slight improvement in the month while the changes from last year and over the past three months still remain negative. Part of the reason for the elusive retail sector recovery is the recent faltering of the labor market which produced a collective 20,300 increase in jobless claims in the past two months. In addition to this, the weather has been unusually warm in the UK this year, stemming this season's apparel sales and possibly projected sales for the winter months. At this rate, the UK could very well be on the brink of a negative growth cycle and the BoE will be forced to deliver more interest rate cuts.

Previous: In September, sales volume at retail outlets increased by 0.7 percent on a monthly basis while growing by the same amount on an annual basis. The monthly figure was up from the 0.2 percent increase seen between July and August. Most of the increase was seen in food sales with volume at food stores growing 1.4 percent while all other stores only saw average growth of 0.4 percent. However; all other sectors, except for non-store retailing, also saw increases in the month though the sales levels in areas such as non-specialized stores and household goods but are still down from a year ago. Over the past year, the UK retail sector has been struggling with only 8 months of growth out of the past 15. This weakness has spread into manufacturing and has further taken its toll on the labor market, which in turn all contributed to the BoE's decision to cut rates in August. Though there are many hoping for a holiday boost to retail sales in the coming months, the gloomy economic climate may keep consumers on the cautious side.

Canadian International Securities (SEP) (13:30 GMT, 08:30 EST)
Consensus: C$2.0 B
Previous: -C$2.7 B

Outlook:  Holdings of Canadian securities probably rebounded to a net C$2.0 billion in September as both the countries equity and debt markets look prime for investment.  Canadian bonds came back into global investors' purview in September as the Bank of Canada changed its cautious stance on the overnight lending rate at its monetary policy meeting.  An increase in the benchmark short-term lending rate 25 basis points to 2.75 percent looked to be the first in a potential string of hawkish moves over the coming months as officials look to head off inflation while the country chugs along near full capacity.   Though the increase in rates seems a pittance compared with the aggressive actions of the U.S., Canadian debt markets will reap the benefit from other countries where rates have gone untouched and investors look for better, safer places to invest their money.  Continued foreign investment in Canadian equities is also likely to boost the balance.  Energy producers paced the benchmark S&P/TSX composite index to a fresh five year high in September. 

Previous:  Canadians continued to invest heavily in foreign securities in August contributing to a net C$2.7 billion invested outside of the country.  This divestment in Canadian securities, the largest in 18 months, largely rests on the shoulders of a large reduction in the holdings of Canadian debt instruments.  As the rate gap between Canada's long term interest rates and that of their neighbors to the south continued to favor the U.S., investment dollars continued to flow into the buoyant treasury bonds.   Holdings of the country's bonds dropped by C$2.4 billion over the month, the largest decline Since February of 2004.  At the same time, holdings of short-term money market paper also fell a similar $1.8 billion.  Largely to blame for the sizable reduction in foreign holdings of Canadian bonds was the retirement of $1.9 billion worth of provincial government debt.  The price shock that resulted in the debt market was sufficient enough to repel potential investors that may have reinvested in other existing securities.  Partially offsetting the debt sell off and preventing the investment balance from weighing too far were equity transactions for the month.  Purchases of C$1.6 billion in Canadian equities over the month were realized as the benchmark S&P/TSX composite index rose near five-year highs.  

US Industrial Production (OCT) (14:15 GMT, 09:15 EST)
Consensus: 1.0%
Previous: -1.5%

Outlook:  The consensus among economist is for a rebound in production in October by 1.0 percent; which, if realized would represent the largest increase in output since November of 1999.  A recoil effect is in order for producers who were paralyzed in September as huge increases in the cost of energy products added to halted production in many factories in the gulf coast area.  Leading the way in the spring back will be the recovery in the mining sector following the 9.1 percent tumble from the previous month.  With oil refineries reopened and rigs coming back on line, oil and gas production will contribute to the improvement in the indicator.  The recovery will be reserved however as crude prices, still above $60, continue to bite into revenues of producer in other sectors.  Also, damage to the vital New Orleans port, where much of the U.S.'s shipping took place, still retarded delivery.  On the other hand, another hefty improvement to the indicator will emerge from the end of the Boeing strike.  The rebound in production from the reduction in filled orders from September will significantly add to returning output for this period.  Bleeding some of the potential strength of October's figure will be the continued erosion in automobile orders.  With auto dealers ending their incentives, only lingering orders to restock inventories will seriously factor into overall production numbers.

Previous:  Industrial production in the world's largest economy fell a revised 1.5 percent in September, the largest drop in 23 years.  This indicator seems to be another victim in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.  Production running up to September reveals that the activity has been steady, with only one dip in output in the previous 11 months.  Taking the most pronounced dive for the period were mining and utilities.  Mining, which includes oil and gas, sunk 9.1 percent in September as the price for light sweet crude oil rose to a record $70.85 per barrel.  With prices for the necessary commodity posting historically high prices, manufacturers felt the squeeze on revenues and uncertainty in future prices forced managers to scale back on production.  In turn, the proportion of industrial capacity in use dropped to 78.6 percent from 79.8 percent in August.  Excluding the effects of the hurricanes, economists estimate production actually rose substantially from the previous period.  Following the mining sector was the utility sector with output posting a 0.9 percent decrease.  Further special, one-time issues in the automotive sector and at Boeing added to the volatile month.  A 3.3 percent rise in automotive production in September followed the 5.5 percent jump in the previous month as dealer incentives continued.  And a strike a Boeing, the world's second largest commercial-airplane maker, pulled the indicator lower.

US Philadelphia Fed. (NOV) (17:00 GMT, 12:00 EST)
Consensus: 15.3
Previous: 17.3

Outlook:  The recovery in manufacturing in the Philadelphia could be in question if the Philly Fed index releases at economists' forecasts at 15.3.   The outcome of the measure will be important in revealing how the region's manufacturing sector is coping with price levels for needed materials.  Looking to the nations leading indicator on manufacturing, the Empire State Survey, its prices paid component actually continued to rise to a record 60.6 read in November.  The proximity of the two regions could translate in similar results to their numbers.  The Empire indicator actually rose however, sustained by a rising employment factor, prices received and an improving outlook.   Philadelphia manufacturers will likely increase the level of prices they receive going into the month in an attempt to improve bottom lines as prices paid hovers in record levels.  A measure of future optimism could also boast a high point for the general indicator.  With consumer confidence rebounding and personal spending and aggregate output remaining defiant to the exaggerated cost of energy products, managers are likely to project the strength into the near future.  It is also common that the actual result of the indicator reports significantly below or above the indicator.  The posting of a 17.3 for the Philly Fed last month was surprising as consensus predicted a 10.0.

Previous: Manufacturing growth in the Philadelphia region returned to pre-storm levels in October by rising to 17.3.   A number above zero indicates the number of factories surveyed reporting improving business outpaced those reporting it worsening.   The rebound following the slowdown in September with oil prices spiking to all-time highs is evidence to the resilience of the sector.  Even with production being hindered by the rising cost of oil in September, Philadelphia factors continued to see strength with the index reading only falling to 2.2.  In October, components of the index saw dramatic improvements.  The new orders index had the biggest change soaring to 18.6 from a -0.5 read in September.  Shipments improved more subtly.  From a level of 13.2 in September when shipping was thrown off by a crippled New Orleans port, redirecting finished orders helped to raise the level back to 19.5.  The hard hit prices aspect also improved markedly in October.  While the prices paid component for raw materials rose to a 25-year high 67.6 from 52.7; prices received made steps at compensating for the burden on manufacturers' balance sheets.  Prices received from other businesses and consumers rose to 32.6 from 8.6 a month before.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.