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Forex Economic Alerts for November 18
By John Kicklighter | Published  11/17/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for November 18
  1. German Producer Prices
  2. Swiss Producer and Import Prices
  3. Canadian Wholesale Trade

German Producer Prices (OCT) (7:00 GMT, 2:00 EST)
Consensus: 0.1% (MoM); 4.0% (YoY)
Previous: 0.4% (MoM); 4.9% (YoY)

Outlook: Inflation in Germany's producer prices for October is expected to ease to a rate of 0.1 percent thanks to the recent decline in oil prices. Over the past year, the soaring cost of oil has been responsible for much of the gains in production costs. As oil prices have tapered off from their record highs, wholesale price inflation resulting from high costs in energy inputs is expected to slow down. However, this slowdown could potentially be short-lived since business confidence in Germany has reached a five year high. Significant growth resulting from this confidence could lead to a demand for higher wages, which will increase labor costs. These higher costs can eventually filter into materials and other producer prices.

Previous: Producer prices in Germany rose by 0.4 percent in September from the previous month and 4.9 percent from September of last year. Rising energy costs have been responsible for much of this inflation as they have placed significant upward pressure on production costs. A nearly 40 percent increase in the cost of oil over the past year has pushed wholesale prices continuously higher. As for the effect of this inflation on manufacturers, aside from energy inputs, inflation in production costs has been kept in check. Germany's record-high unemployment rate in August reduced the pressure on higher wages in September, which would have allowed companies to produce at lower costs if not for expensive energy inputs. 

Swiss Producer and Import Prices (MoM) (OCT) (8:15 GMT, 3:15 EST)
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.7%

Outlook: Producer and import prices in Switzerland are expected to have risen 0.2 percent during October, considerably less than in the prior month when it rose the fastest since September 2000. Prices shot up during September as oil prices rose to record highs. However the commodity calmed down a bit during October, bringing overall prices down with it. The burden of high raw material prices due to hefty oil costs eased a bit on Swiss producers, keeping this component of the index in check. Import prices are also expected to have eased drastically as Switzerland fuels most of its energy needs from foreign sources. Despite this easing in inflationary pressure, markets are still predicting that the Swiss National Bank may tighten monetary policy as soon as next month at their year end press conference to ensure a more stable price environment.

Previous: Swiss producer and import prices rose by 0.7 percent from August to September, the largest jump in 5 years. Economists only predicted a 0.2 percent rise. This hefty gain can be attributed to oil prices soaring to record highs during the month. The rising cost of energy pushed up raw material costs for producers, forcing them to raise prices, as well as raising not only the price of oil imports but also, indirectly, the cost of many other products, especially chemicals and oil based detergents. In Germany, Switzerland's largest trading partner, producer prices were up the most in four years. This large jump has put pressure on the Swiss National Bank to raise the target interest rate, after holding it at a low 0.75 percent for over a year. Although inflation has not been a serious problem for the country in the recent past, bank officials are now detailing that they are looking more closely at prices and that they can no longer ignore inflation.

Canadian Wholesale Trade (MoM) (SEP) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 0.5%
Previous: 0.7%

Outlook: September's Canadian wholesale sales are expected to have grown by 0.5 percent from August, which would be the measure's seventh increase in the past eight months. There are several factors which pose downside risks to this estimate. The prior month's stellar growth was largely caused by high automobile sales, which probably weakened in September as consumers pared back buying following the summer glut. Also, Canadian retail sales fell in August, which generally should lead to some decline in wholesale sales in the following months. In addition to this, another clue of downside risk is found in Canada's merchandise trade balance. Excluding energy, exports only grew 0.2 percent in while growth in the previous month was over 1.5 percent. Lastly, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates in the beginning of September, which may have had a calming effect on sales growth.

Previous: Canadian wholesale sales growth was higher than expected in August at 0.7 percent, up from a revised -0.6 percent in July, which was the only drop in the seven months up to and including August. This rise was largely due to sales of automobiles as dealerships sought to restock their lots after the summer's employee discount price promotions caused sales to skyrocket. However, excluding the automotive sector, wholesalers actually saw 0.6 percent less sales in the month compared to July. Farm products sales were also boosted after the US opened up its borders to livestock from Canada. Sales in building materials and personal/household goods also posted modest gains. While this is suggestive of continuing domestic demand in Canada, there are some danger signs in the data. For the second month in a row, sales of machinery and electronic equipment have fallen. Though the current sales level is still up from the previous year, this certainly shows that capital investment is slowing down, which is a trend that should only continue as the Bank of Canada embarks on a string of rate hikes.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.