Energies
Strength in energies died down a bit after better than expected energy inventory numbers caused yet another pause in this volatile sector.  OPEC in the background, terrorism and geopolitical premium underlying the market, and more analysts saying crude to $80 gives the complex a heck of a lot to be worried (or contrarian) about.  Bottom line is the energy complex is a short across the board with selling call premium about 10% away from the market with 4-8 weeks in time the best way to approach the market.

Financials
So we broke 1200 and the back and forth with my chips currently have me mid-way to all-in with breakdown on my mind.  Trade deficit numbers today and Greenspan the other night tell the story this week.  Not sure if the market has completely turned yet but a break to a new high and failure is not what a bull wanted to see so some fund selling should come in as confidence leaves the market.  Bonds self destructed as expected and more downside is on the way - but sell into the anticipated (albeit brief) reprieve sometime next week as it may be your last shot before we see 106 on the 30 year.  The dollar is making me look quite foolish, but the gut is the gut.  Timing isn't always perfect but the gut tends to get you where you need to be.  That said, the dollar would need to support out above 8050 (possibly at today's lows?) in order to set up the intermediate term trend line support needed to give it positive momentum.  A double bottom is a mediocre but last line of defense.  Those in my camp, who have converted from dollar bear (for two years) to dollar bull are fighting the legendary Greenspan and Buffet, but nevertheless the dollar should head significantly higher throughout the year.

Grains
Bull run in grains this week highlighted by impressive crop production and export figures.  This is the last push for beans until June or July, so if you stuck out this far look for the top to be put in next week.  Wheat is more supportive and corn a value, but the follow through that grain bull are looking for should offer nothing but disappointment.  The market is far ahead of itself in both seasonality and with its overbought nature.  Buy put spreads or sell call credit spreads, but avoid those naked plays as rust is an overhanging threat in this market.

Meats
Politics and cattle - who knew?  I admit I got caught on this one, but the highs held and the downside is coming - stick with me and watch us head to the mid-70s.  You got a technical coil on a monthly chart.  You got Japan giving the positive PR about US cattle ban, Canadian pressure on Bush to rid us of these delaying tactics, and best of all you got a delay on the release of the Canadian beef ban coming when most of Canada wasn't prepared to meet the regulations to ship them over anyway.  Overall this was the last gasp effort of the bulls.  Keep in mind the long rollover we are seeing from April to June isn't over yet either.  Hogs and bellies still heading south.

Metals
Gold and silver bounced mildly on dollar weakness this week.  I continue to see a bear break right around the corner so get short in a hurry.  Copper is ready for a sell and palladium remains a buy with stops at 175.

Softs
OJ crop report confirms what I have been saying all along - what Florida crop?  There isn't one!  OJ zoomed past 100 but developed an ugly inside today, so a break to new highs is needed by mid-week to keep the momentum, otherwise this might have be a one time reaction followed by a sell the news environment.  I am 2/3rds out of my longs.  Coffee continues to soar on fears of a supply squeeze and crop problems.  Overall coffee is bullish but the gut says we are near the highs and only a fool would avoid selling the ridiculous call premiums in the market - look at July 250 calls for $300 or May 170s for $600 - too good to be true!  Cotton continues to run, and I continue to buy puts.  Cocoa ran up to end the week and absolute chaos threatens the Ivory Coast in the near term.  Look for a post weekend relief selloff but some serious volatility to be expected for the next few weeks.  Lumber is a sell - again.  Sugar faked me out again but a bear move is still likely.

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James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.