As our proxy for gold, let's have a look at the big picture of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD). As we enter the final hour of the week, let's notice that the GLD appears to have held lows in the 128.80 area against its July-October up trendline, which preserves its near term uptrend. That said, however, the "Island (Cluster) Top" that was put in during the October 14-October 19 timeframe remains valid and represents a very powerful negative technical influence on the GLD.

Unless or until the gap area between 1.3150 and 1.3280 is filled, the near-term technical health of the GLD must be questioned. Furthermore, inability of the GLD to close the down-gap before the price structure breaks the July-October up trendline at 128.80/70 could have a devastating impact on the heretofore bullish trend- and will project GLD prices into the 123.00-121.00 target zone.

Much might depend on the outcome of the G-20 meeting, which likley will have a meaningful impact on the direction and the value of the US dollar. If the dollar responds positively to the G-20 meeting, then the GLD likely will break the July-October trendline.

Mike Paulenoff is a 26-year veteran of the financial markets and author of MPTrader.com.