Energies
Weakness in the energy complex continues as a mild start to the winter makes my bearish forecast look solid.  But further assessment, both technically and fundamentally of the energy markets suggest that a choppy and volatile couple of months lie ahead.  This is a great opportunity to sell OTM premium on both sides and benefit from premium collection as the market has the potential to stay range bound ($54-$64) for the next couple of months.  Moreover, the market appears set to overreact to a cold front scenario that would rally the market sharply, albeit temporarily.

Financials
Strength in the S&P is not all that surprising as the market has one fake intermediate move after another.  As we approach critical 1255 resistance I would be very weary of any trading here.  Short futures on a day trade basis to play resistance between 1249 ? 1255 would about the only angle.  Bonds gave the bounce I was looking for and now is the time to get aggressively short with bear put spreads and straight OTM put plays as they can be bought on the cheap.  The dollar rally is right in-line with the forecasted topside of the year?s range and should offer major selling pressure at this price through the end of the year.  The euro especially seems primed to rally from these prices.  Expect some intervention here to prevent an overbought condition in the dollar.  The Canadian?s break below 84 is significant and should be a good setup to see 82 in a brief time.

Grains
Choppy and ugly trade persisted in the grain markets as bird flu concerns continued to peck away at any support the market appears to develop.  There is a good argument for the buying focus to be in wheat, but I believe beans have the most to gain from post-harvest demand and overall fundamental price support.  Look to diversify among beans and wheat.  Rice remains a breakout bull buy.

Meats
Cattle and hogs both offered top heavy trade this week heading into today?s cattle on feed.  Look for a strong selloff next week with gut shot call on the report.

Metals
A surge and flight to quality in metals this week set fresh contract highs and made this bear look quite the fool.  Over the past three years the market has set a tremendous number of fresh contract highs after retracements, but this one didn?t give us the retracement I suspect the market needed to sustain much higher prices.  With that said, the dollar appears to have put itself into an overbought condition and the metals seem to be jumping the gun on a possible reversal.  Overall the market appears to want to touch $500 on a psychological level and may well do that but the intermediate term trend is still begging for a real retracement.  Platinum should top around $1,000 and this is a screaming short.

Softs
OJ is showing a rough pennant near its highs, and a technician would argue higher prices ahead, but the gut says watch out for a solid breakdown to clear out the suckers first.  Coffee broke down post-Dec. option expiration and I am a big-time buyer here.  Cocoa got some pop today on sketchy reports out of the Ivory Coast of the rebels getting a bit rebellious and we should see a major rally ensue next week.  Cotton is in breakdown mode and is sure is taking a while to penetrate support but it is still a bear market.  Sugar is avoidable with cheap puts a reasonable option if you must participate.