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S&P 500 Continues to Make New Highs on the Year
By Toni Hansen | Published  11/22/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
S&P 500 Continues to Make New Highs on the Year

Good morning! As we headed into the Thanksgiving holiday week, the market has continued to favor the bulls, but also remain quite choppy in between intraday upward surges. Volume was a bit lighter than Friday, which was a reaction to the slower morning and extremely slow early afternoon. After a relatively flat open, the market eased lower into prior lows on the NASDAQ 15 minute charts where they found support rather quickly heading into the 9:45 ET reversal period. This pivot held well, which would be the case throughout the morning, allowing for decent reversal patterns intraday in the EMini futures.

 

The market climbed well off the support, moving steadily higher into prior 15 minute highs on the NASDAQ. This move actually broke the highs of last week in both the SP500 and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. As the NASDAQ came into its price resistance, the 10:45 and 11:00 ET reversal periods also hit. This helped the market pivot again going into the end of the morning. The NASDAQ formed a 2T on the 1-2 minute charts and had the strongest downside move. It fell sharply into the 5 minute 20 sma, and while the SP500 and Dow also followed suit, the NASDAQ was able to break that support zone with a strong continuation back into morning lows, while the SP500 and Dow faltered at their 15 minute 20 sma support.

The market put in its third intraday pivot around 11:45 ET, which was a bit earlier than the typical 12:00 ET reversal. The NASDAQ formed the reverse of a 2T by hitting a slightly lower low on the 1-2 minute charts to help turn it back around into the early afternoon. This time, however, the follow through was not as strong. There was a great deal of overlap in prices with a slower upside pace going into the 13:00 ET reversal period. There wasn't a strong enough short pattern given the rounded lows on the SP500 and Dow to form a breakdown into the afternoon though, despite the issue of the upside pace being more gradual, and hence more bearish, than the downside pace. This created a bit of indecision into the afternoon because the 5 minute charts kept looking weaker, while the 15 minute charts had a great deal of support and kept trying to climb higher off that 15 minute 20 sma support.

In the end, the larger 15 minute charts won the tug of war and the pace to the upside was able to break out in the last hour of the day. This wasn't enough for the NASDAQ to be able to break last week's highs, but it did leave the market with a positive close. This gives us a more bullish bias again heading into Tuesday. While the upside is becoming more extended, we still have not seen a change in bias intraday, so I won't be very aggressive on the short side yet. I do expect volume to continue to decline as the week progresses, however, and we move into the holidays. I will also be taking Wednesday-Friday off, but will resume this column on Monday morning. I wish you all a happy holiday!

Economic Reports and Events
Nov. 22: Existing Home Sales for Oct. (10:00 am), FOMC Minutes (2:00 pm)
Nov. 23: Initial Claims 11/19 (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment-Rev. for Nov. (9:45 am), Help-Wanted Index for Oct. (10:00 am), Crude Inventories 11/18 (10:30 am)
Nov. 24:-
Nov. 25:-
Nov. 28: Existing Home Sales for Oct. (10:00)
Nov. 29: Durable Orders for Oct. (8:30 am), Consumer Confidence for Nov. (10:00 am), New Home Sales for Oct. (10:00 am)

Earnings Announcements of Interest
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 500K+ are listed. List may not be complete so be sure to always check your stocks' earnings dates before holding a position overnight. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
Nov. 22: ABS (?), CWTR (A), DE (?), DG (B), DLTR (B), HRS (?), MIK (A), OPSW (A), PETC (?)
Nov. 23: CHINA (?), MBT (07:00 am ET), PDCO (B)
Nov. 24: -
Nov. 25: -
Nov. 28: -
Nov. 29: CHS (A), GME (B), SMTC (A), SCMR (B), TIVO (A)

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.