1. Bank of England Meeting Minutes
2. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence
3. Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance

Bank of England Meeting Minutes (November 10) (9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST)

Outlook: November's Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting had left the bank's repo rate unchanged at 4.5 percent. Judging from the generally worse-than-expected data released between the October and November meetings, the assessment made at this month's meeting may have deteriorated from the previous outlook. Q3 GDP growth fell, as expected, to 0.4 percent from the 05 percent seen in Q2. Meanwhile, the latest index of production revealed a fall in manufacturing output when a rise was expected and also a lower-than-expected growth rate in total production. Wage growth, again, remained unchanged while inflation measured by the consumer price index fell in October for the first time in over a year. These changes definitely made their way into the Bank's November inflation report, which painted a far more pessimistic picture for the next 2 years than that presented by August's report. In October's minutes, some members had already pointed out increased downside risks on demand. In light of the new developments, November's minutes will probably convey more negative sentiment and could possibly even reveal some dissent in the policy vote.

Previous: In the policy-setting meeting which ended on October 6th, the Bank of England voted unanimously to keep the repo rate at 4.5 percent for the second month in a row. The minutes revealed a fairly similar assessment to the one produced at the previous meeting. The same set of concerns remained for the committee which included sluggish consumption, possible second-round effects of the cumulative rise in oil prices, and overall output growth. The slow pace of consumption growth seen so far this year was attributed partly to the falling growth of real wages in the first half of 2005. As for inflation, the committee considered the negative demand-side effects on wages in the labor market due to the comparatively higher costs from oil. Since migration has increased the supply of labor, this should either keep wages down or total employment down, which both amount to a negative effect on aggregate consumer purchasing power. These factors, along with others, convinced some committee members that there were increased downside risks on growth in the short-term. Without any sign of second-round inflation effects, the minutes from the meeting still signaled that the MPC is poised to make another rate cut in the near future.

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (NOV F) (14:45 GMT, 9:45 EST)
Consensus: 80.5
Previous:  79.9

Outlook: November's final consumer confidence number from the University of Michigan is expected to show a slightly larger recovery in the month to 80.5 from October's 74.2. This is a further improvement from the preliminary figure of 79.9 for November. The falling gas prices that drove the index to make the initial 5.7-point recovery probably provided an additional boost to the month's final figure. The average retail price of gasoline continued to fall in the second half of the month and was $2.201 per gallon by week ending November 21st. This price level hasn't been seen since mid-June, prior to the hurricanes which caused the recent run-up in oil prices. Also, the fact that crude oil has remained below $60 for some time now has probably abated some consumers' fear of the cost of heating their homes this winter. On balance, if the current economic trends are uninterrupted, consumer confidence should continue improving going into 2006.

Previous: In November's preliminary report, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index recovered from October's thirteen-year low of 74.2 and rose to 79.9. This beat economists' expectations of a rise to 76.5. While higher costs and falling real income caused the initial decline in October, this strong recovery was attributed to a decrease in gasoline prices as they receded from the records made following the recent hurricanes. The average retail price of a gallon of regular grade gasoline has been falling consecutively since the week ending October 3rd. By mid-November, data from the week ending November 14th revealed a cumulative fall of 21.6 percent over the past six weeks. Because of this relief on consumers' bank accounts, many retailers are expecting strong holiday sales this year, which will boost year-end consumer spending figures, leading to a positive impact on overall confidence in the US economy going forward.

Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance (OCT) (23:50 GMT, 18:50 EST)
Consensus: ¥878.9B
Previous: ¥954.0B

Outlook: After hitting record highs in September, Japan's trade surplus is expected to shrink for the month of October. Analysts expect exports to grow by 9.8 percent on increasing electronics demand, as both the US and China showed strong growth during the third quarter. Falling oil prices are allowing consumers to open their wallets for goods other than gasoline, like cell phones and flat-panel monitors/TV's, which are major staples of the Japanese economy. Additionally, automobile manufacturer, Toyota, is expecting to reach new sales records in the United States. The increase in auto sales, another staple of the Japanese economy, will help fuel a jump in exports. However, imports are expected to offset the increase in exports. Fueling the surge in imports is a dramatic increase in domestic demand. Companies are compelled to invest in new production facilities at home in order to meet the higher consumption needs. Though it may prove negative for the country's trade balance, this increased domestic demand is contributing to the Japanese economy's longest growth run in eight years.

Previous: In September, Japan's exports rose 8.8 percent to a new record. The growth in exports came from a surge in demand for electronics from the United States and China. As China's economy continues to push forward, demand for electronic goods, like cell phones, rises dramatically. In fact, shipments to China put the most upward lift on Japanese exports as it increased by 14.4 percent. Overall, outbound shipments rose to ¥5.9 trillion, amounting to approximately $51 billion. Despite the surge in exports, the trade surplus narrowed slightly as higher oil prices lifted import valuations by 17 percent. The trade surplus declined to 954.0 billion yen. Still, the increase in exports far surpassed expectations of only 5.8 percent, indicating that despite higher oil and gas prices aroun the world, consumers are still consuming.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.