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Dollar Sun Rises Once Again
By Jamie Saettele | Published  11/25/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Dollar Sun Rises Once Again

EUR/USD - Euro bulls once again found themselves retreating below the 1.1800 handle after the pair failed to break the greenback defenses around the 1.1869, a level marked by the summer 2005 low. A further move on the part of the dollar bulls will most likely see the pair head lower and with a break of the 1.1700 figure test single currency defenses around 1.1686, a level established by the November 22 daily low. A further move to the downside will most likely see the dollar bulls advance below the 1.1600 level and take on the euro's bids around 1.1546, an October 17, 2003 daily low and a gateway toward the psychologically important 1.1500 handle.  Indicators are favoring dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/JPY - Japanese Yen longs failed to follow through with their initial counterattack that pushed the pair below the 119.00 figure. As greenback longs continue to dominate the price action and push the pair toward the 2005 High at 119.57, a break to the upside will most likely see the pair head above the psychologically important 120.00 handle. A sustained momentum on the part of the greenback longs will most likely see the Japanese yen bull retreat higher and try to mount a counterattack around 120.72, a level marked by the August 1, 2003 daily high.  Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 40.81 signaling an existence of a maturing trend, not a direction of one, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver..

GBP/USD - British pound bulls failed to gain momentum above the 1.7200 figure and instantly fell prey to the greenback longs, which did not hesitate to push the pair lower. As dollar bulls reassert their dominance and continue to recapture recently lost territory, a further move to the downside will most likely see the cable longs retreat below the 1.7100 level and try to mount a defense around 1.7071, a recently established 2005 Low as well as a gateway to the psychologically important 1.7000 handle. A further collapse of the sterling defenses will most likely see the pair tumble further and head toward the pound bids around 1.6877, a level marked by the November 26, 2003 daily low. Indicators are favoring dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while extremely overbought Stochastic gives the sterling longs a chance to retaliate.

USD/CHF - Swiss Franc longs continued to retreat after their failed to establish a foothold below the 1.3100 level. As dollar longs flex their muscles and push the pair above the 1.3200 figure, their next move to the upside will most likely see the Swissie longs retreat above the 1.3285, the most recent 2005 high. A further break to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and take on the Swiss Franc offers around 1.3389, a level established by the October 3, 2003 daily high, breaking of which will most likely open the psychologically important 1.3500 handle as a target of opportunity for prospective dollar longs. Indicators remains in favor of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar bulls continued to push deeper into the US dollar held territory as the pair edged closer to the 1.1700 handle. As the pair remains above the 1.1700 handle, the next move to the downside will most likely see the Loonie longs test the greenback defenses around 1.1643, a level established by the October 27 daily low. A subsequent reversal will most likely see the pair head above the 1.1700 figure and with sustained momentum on the part of the US dollar longs seeing the Canadian dollar try to mount a counterattack around 1.1857, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the 1.2730-1.1592 CAD rally. Indicators are favoring dollar longs with both momentum indicator and positive MACD above the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

AUD/USD - Australian dollar bulls were in full retreat after their attack against the US dollar failed to push the pair above .7385, a level established by the 23.6 fib of the .7798-7267 USD rally. Retaliation on the part of the greenback bulls will most likely see the pair head toward the .7300 handle and with a break below seeing the US dollar longs test the Australian dollar bids around .7263, a level marked by the most recent 2005 Low. A further collapse of the Australian dollar defenses will most likely see the greenback longs take on the Aussie defenses around .7224, a level established by the October 19, 2004 daily low. Indicators are signaling trending conditions with ADX above 25 at 26.80, signaling an existence of a trend, not a direction of one, while both momentum indicator and negative MACD remain below the zero line, with neutral oscillators giving either side enough room to maneuver.

NZD/USD - New Zealand dollar bulls continued to dominate the price action above the .6900 figure, but failed to push further above the US dollar offers around the .6950 level. A counterattack by the greenback bulls will most likely see the pair head lower and with a break below the .6900 handle, seeing the US dollar longs test the Kiwi's defenses around .6870, a level established by the 23.6 Fib of the .7468-.6681 USD rally. A further break below will most likely see the New Zealand dollar retreat toward the next line of defenses around .6773, a level established by the November 15 daily low. Indicators remain in favor of the US dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and negative MACD remain below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

Sam Shenker is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.