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Forex Economic Alerts for November 29
By John Kicklighter | Published  11/28/2005 | Currency | Unrated
Forex Economic Alerts for November 29
  1. French Producer Prices
  2. US Durable Goods Orders
  3. Canadian Current Account
  4. US Consumer Confidence

French Producer Prices (OCT) (07:45 GMT; 02:45 EST)

Consensus:     0.2% (MoM);     3.2% (YoY)
Previous:        0.6% (MoM);     3.4% (YoY)

Consensus: France's Producer Price Index (PPI) is estimated to increase by 0.2 percent in October as surging energy prices pressured input costs for French manufacturers which are likely to weigh on production as well as in consumer costs down the line.  French citizens may hardly be in the position to take on this added burden to already tight incomes.  September's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged down to 9.8 percent from 9.9 percent in August. French housing starts slipped to 8.2 percent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter on a basis from 8.7 percent in the previous quarter. This indicator taken along with the French government's recent admission that fourth quarter growth is unlikely to match the 0.7 percent third quarter rise, the unexpectedly soft November IFO survey and softer CPI figures from German states, seems to have encouraged traders to take more seriously Trichet's comments that the ECB rate hike, most likely to be delivered next Thursday is not necessarily the start of tightening cycle.

Previous: September producer price index was up 0.6 percent and 3.4 percent when measured on an annual basis. Excluding the more volatile food and energy components, the measure was up 0.2 percent and 1.2 percent on the year. Prices at the factory gate are likely to be pressured by producers attempting to pass on increased costs for raw materials, and especially energy, prices.  Energy prices jumped 2.4 percent with petrol prices soaring 4.3 percent in September.  With the large increases in these large components, there was little to significantly offset bottom lines.  The closest attempt came from a 0.2 percent decline in food and agriculture prices.

US Durable Goods Orders (OCT) (13:30 GMT, 08:30 EST)
Consensus:      1.5%
Previous:        -2.4%

Consensus: The rebuilding effort following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in September is expected to support orders of goods that will last more than several years in October.  A leading indication that orders of durable goods are on the rise for the month can be drawn from November 17th's indicator of industrial production.  The report from the Federal Reserve revealed that production rose the most since May of 2004 in October.   A portion of this increase in activity was attributed to restoring businesses and homes in the gulf coast area.  With recovery for storm damaged areas picking up, an expected increase in business investment should only further the increase in orders.   Managers at companies were faced with the task of replacing aging equipment and replenishing bare inventories following a summer spend expunging excess stock that had backed up with consumer spending stuttering.  A specific company that could contribute enormously to the measure in October could be commercial aircraft maker, Boeing Co.  The world's second largest producer of the specialized airplanes reported 36 orders for its aircraft in October, following a September lull that coincided with a company-wide strike that finally ended on September 25.  One point of concern however should lie with auto sales for the month.  Sales of cars and light trucks slowed to an annualized 14.7 million in October, the slowest pace in almost seven years.  Excluding volatile transportation orders, orders are expected to have risen only 1.0 percent.

Previous: The effects of falling corporate confidence in response to surging energy prices has extended its reach to durable goods in September and sending the indicator down a greater than expected 2.4 percent.  Following August's 3.4 percent rise, orders dropped beyond the expected 1.5 percent the following month paced by falling demand for computers and communication equipment.  Orders for computer related products fell 6.8 percent in September while those for equipment for communications purposes fell 5.4 percent.   More solid - and subsequently less volatile - measures of orders were also showing weakness, further pointing out the overall effect higher energy costs has had on all of the economy.  Orders excluding transportation equipment fell 1 percent while those for non-defense goods excluding aircraft fell 1.2 percent.  Commercial aircraft orders were of specific importance for the month with orders from the world's second largest aircraft producer, Boeing Co., falling to 24 from 90 in the previous month.  Orders plunged in September after a mechanics strike.

Canadian Current Account (QoQ) (3Q) (13:30 GMT, 08:30 EST)
Consensus:     $9.0B
Previous:        $4.7B

Outlook: Canada's Surplus looks to remain well intact for the third quarter with the consensus among economists looking for receipts outside Canada to outpace payments abroad by C$9 billion.   Balances in both the trade of goods and services as well as that for securities exchange looks favorable for the increase in the third quarter's current account.  The value of Canada's imports and exports hit record highs in September, pushing the trade balance to C$7.02 billion for the month.   Exports of goods rose 2.8 percent almost exclusively on the back of higher prices for Canada's energy exports.  Exports of natural gas surged 26.7 percent in September.   Crude also played its part after the price of Light Sweet Crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit an all-time high $70.85 a few days before the end of August.  Excluding the robust effects of both natural gas and crude oil exports, exports were rather flat with only a 0.2 percent increase from the month before.    The balance of international payments is also supporting a rise for the quarter.  Foreign investors sought out Canadian equities and debt instruments especially in July and September.  The benchmark Canadian equity index, the S&P/TSX Composite index has marched to relative highs through the third quarter; although it took a break in August.  A C$4.89 billion surplus in September was especially encouraging with the same index peaking above 11,000 as well as from Canadian fixed income securities shaking to life as the Bank of Canada began what looked to be a string of interest rate increases that would make the securities better competitors for foreigners'' currency.

Previous: Three consecutive quarters of a narrowing current account balance was finally snapped in the three months ending in June, when the level of exports over imports rose to C$4.67 billion from C$3.37 billion in the first quarter.  The strong showing in exports' strength is landing with the benefit to Canadian producers of energy products.  The country is the ninth largest producer of crude oil and the third largest producer of natural gas, both of which were relatively strong over the period.  Exports rose 2.5 percent for the period to C$110.3 billion.  Other points of strength for the period were television and telecommunications, which reached four-year highs, as well as exports of machinery and equipment.  Even manufacturers, whose exports were among the most hurt by a currency near a 12-year high against the U.S. dollar, looked to upgrading facilities and processes in an effort to become more competitive on the global market.  On the other side of the equation, the value of imports advanced 1.5 percent.  Providing the largest detriment were deficits in both the services and investment income component.  The services deficit broadened to C$3.5 billion while that of investment income grew to C$6.0 billion.

Consumer Confidence (NOV) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Previous:       85.0
Consensus:    90.0

Outlook:  The Consumer Confidence Index most likely rose to 90 from 85 in October as labor markets remained strong and declining gasoline prices both allowed and encouraged consumers to put their money back into the economy. The average monthly job creation from January through October was 161,000, the second highest for the same period since 1999. However, layoffs at companies seeking to boost competitiveness and concern about winter heating expenses threaten to curtail retail sales and delay a recovery in confidence. In the automotive industry; General Motors and Ford Motors Company announced that they will be laying off 16,000 and 4,000 employees, respectively, in an effort to salvage thinning revenues.  Consumer confidence may also suffer from worries that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates following its uninterrupted 12 increases. The Fed is expected to raise its benchmark rate once more this year, to 4.25 percent, and then by another half percentage point by the middle of next year, according to a consensus among economists.

Previous:  The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 85 from 87.5 in September, the largest decline in 15 years. Consumer's optimism hit this low following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita destructive path through the Gulf Coast.  Not only had massive displacements of humans and lost businesses weigh on Americans' minds, but the added effect of skyrocketing energy prices provided an added sense of urgency and uncertainty of what the future may bring. Individual components followed in a common weakening path for the period.  The share of consumers expecting to buy a home declined to 2.7 percent, the lowest since November 2004, from 3.4 percent. The component of the index that tracks consumers' expectations for the next six months decreased to 69.5, the lowest since March 2003, from 72.3.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.